026
FXUS64 KOUN 191130
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
630 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...Enhanced Risk Of Severe Storms This Evening For Northern OK...

Shortwave progressing eastward form southern California early this
morning will round the base of developing western U.S. longwave
trough and approach our area late today and tonight. Widespread
severe thunderstorms are expected across Kansas, with coverage
decreasing with southern extent into northern, possibly western
Oklahoma east of dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Strong
instability and shear will be in place for supercells, with very
large hail and damaging winds the primary concern. Tornado threat
will remain low, initially due to LCL height, and later on due to
progressive/outflow dominant mode expected later in the evening.
Right now, it appears that outflow dominant bowing segments will
be the favored mode during the mid and late evening hours across
north central Oklahoma. There is a chance for the storms to expand
farther south into central Oklahoma prior to midnight if cold
pool is intense enough this far south and interacts with low level
jet. Damaging wind gusts would be the concern if that happens,
although sporadic with increased lower level stability by that
time.

Will be another hot day with most forecast highs in the 90s, about
10 to 15 degrees above average. There will be stronger winds than we
saw yesterday, which will help with air quality.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Above average temperatures expected to continue Monday and Tuesday
ahead of seasonably strong cold front. Models are having some run to
run consistency with the timing of this front, with a noticeably
slower progression. With this slower trend, not bringing the front
through until Tuesday night, the late Tuesday/Tuesday night
period could end up being a bigger deal severe weather wise across
a larger portion of Oklahoma. While large scale forcing will not
be all that strong, greater amounts of moisture and late day
timing will likely yield severe storms near and ahead of the front
especially central and southeast Oklahoma.

Depending on how far south the effective frontal boundary makes it
on Wednesday we could see post frontal showers and storms across
northern Texas and southern Oklahoma, with heavy rain a concern.

As another shortwave trough approaches from the southwest on
Thursday, and the frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm
front, another round of severe weather still appears possible for
Thursday. Though there are model differences the farther out we
go, active pattern continues with the possibility for severe
weather through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through this evening
(~22-00/20th UTC). Gusty south/southeasterly winds are expected to
develop shortly after sunrise, with gusts upwards of 30-34 knots
possible, especially at KCSM/KWWR this afternoon.

By late this afternoon, widely scattered showers/storms are
expected to emerge across northwestern Oklahoma, spreading into
northern/north-central Oklahoma by the late evening. For now,
impact is most likely at KWWR/KPNC during the period, though
southward expansion towards additional central Oklahoma terminals
is possible. MVFR/IFR category is expected amidst this activity.
Will also monitor for low-level wind shear and low stratus
development early Monday morning, though spatial coverage of both
appears limited at this time.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  68  92  73 /   0  30   0   0
Hobart OK         93  67  97  71 /  20  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  92  71  94  74 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           94  62  97  65 /  30  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     89  66  91  72 /   0  60   0   0
Durant OK         90  70  89  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34