822
FXUS64 KOUN 301148
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
648 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

MCS season continues. Two different complexes of storms are
organizing on radar and are set to move through our forecast area
over the next several hours into the morning.

The first originates with the storms currently over southwest
Kansas, moving them through northwest Oklahoma between 3 and 7 am.
These would be supported by a low level jet extending over the
panhandles into western Kansas, eastern flank of the jet over
northwest Oklahoma. These storms could be initially strong to
marginally severe (damaging winds being the main threat), but should
diminish quickly as they move east of the low level jet.

The second round originates with the storms northeast of Lubbock and
would pass southeast through western north Texas / southwest
Oklahoma. Instability and moisture are more ample through this
region, but the low level jet appears weaker. This environment would
seem to be a bit more supportive of marginally severe storms (again,
mainly a wind threat, with an additional concern for localized
flooding with training storms).

Daytime showers and storms will largely consist of the remnants of
these two MCS`s making their way eastward. Behind them, we should
see a lull in activity until the next round starts over the
panhandles late in the afternoon, though a few CAMs do produce some
isolated to scattered convection in western Oklahoma this afternoon.

Models are fairly consistent about bringing together storms off the
dryline this afternoon into an MCS that will traverse our area this
evening and overnight. Instability and low level shear (with upper
level support of a shortwave) should be supportive of severe wind
gusts with this complex.

With the multiple rounds of storms, heavy rain will also be a
concern.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Models suggest that the MCS pattern will continue into the weekend,
albeit with lower confidence (20-30% PoPs). These low rain chances
continue into next week through the end of the forecast period under
more or less zonal flow.

Temperatures start to gradually increase this weekend into early
next week as the upper ridge tries to nudge back into the area and
daytime precipitation chances diminish.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are moving across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas moving east. This is just the
first wave of a few waves of storms that will affect the area
today, tonight and overnight. Some severe weather will be
possible, especially with the complex of storms this evening and
overnight. Areas of IFR ceilings have developed in southern
Oklahoma (KDUA, KADH, KDUC, KSNL). The IFR ceilings are expected
to become less widespread with ceiling heights lifting in general
today, but MVFR and potentially IFR ceilings will likely redevelop
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  64  78  63 /  40  80  70  20
Hobart OK         84  63  81  63 /  40  80  60  30
Wichita Falls TX  83  65  81  66 /  50  70  60  20
Gage OK           84  59  81  59 /  50  80  30  30
Ponca City OK     81  64  76  61 /  40  80  70  20
Durant OK         82  67  81  67 /  50  70  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26