Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
571 FXUS63 KPAH 241148 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 648 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns. - Numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe storms are likely with damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all possible. - Dry conditions with near normal temperatures will be the rule for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Some patches of fog have developed along and northwest of a Mt Vernon Illinois to Greenville, Kentucky line. An occasional southeasterly breeze should keep dense fog from setting in, but we will continue to monitor for the need to issue a Special Weather Statement or a Dense Fog Advisory. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop mid to late morning along and east of the Mississippi River. These storms will race northeast and should exit the region by 3 PM. Moderate to strong instability may develop by late morning, but the wind fields will be very weak. Therefore, a few of these storms may briefly pulse up to produce some strong winds, but organized severe storms are not expected. Late this afternoon, more scattered storms may develop or move into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Wind fields will increase sufficiently to support a severe storm threat with these storms as they attempt to push eastward across the region. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A chance of thunderstorms will continue overnight tonight ahead of a cold front that will reach west Kentucky before daybreak Saturday. A small chance of showers and storms will linger into Saturday in the far east and southeast portions of the Quad State. No severe weather is expected overnight tonight through Saturday night. The cold front will bring in some drier air to northwest portions of the region. South winds will increase on Sunday and may briefly approach Lake Wind Advisory levels over portions of southeast Missouri. We have no plans to issue an Advisory at this time, but the strong winds will push lower 70 dewpoints back north through the entire Quad State quickly Sunday morning. Along with temperatures reaching the upper 80s, the increase moisture will lead to very strong instability developing by afternoon throughout the Quad State. This is made possible by the presence of a healthy cap. Wind fields will increase Saturday night and will be very strong and supportive of supercells and a severe squall line in the afternoon and evening. The main concern for the prospective severe storm outbreak Sunday is convective initiation. Any remnant convection from Saturday night and any significant upper-level forcing will pass to the north of the Quad State, but one or more outflow boundaries will likely provide a focus for thunderstorm development. The initial thunderstorms are likely to quickly become severe supercells with all severe hazards possible. Confidence in where these boundaries will be by Sunday afternoon is low, but they should be sufficiently close to allow storms to impact at least the northeast half of the Quad State. Model soundings reveal very steep lapse rates in the low and mid levels, and very dry air in the mid and upper levels. Therefore, there should be strong potential for rapid cold pool development which would favor quick upscale growth to a severe QLCS. Given the instability available, large hail cannot be ruled out even in a linear system, but the primary concern with the line will be damaging winds and tornadoes. Given the impressive parameter space the models are generating, some high end severe events (EF2+ tornadoes, 75+ mph winds, and 2+" diameter hail) will be possible, especially over the northeast half of the Quad State. Some chance PoPs will linger into Monday as a final impulse rides southeast on the back side of a developing Great Lakes upper trough. For Monday night through at least Thursday dry northwest flow aloft is expected, with cool, dry high pressure in control at the surface. The flow may relax enough by next Friday to allow an upper-level disturbance to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Quad State. For the short work week, it will be mostly dry with low humidity and near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 MVFR ceilings are expected for a few hours this morning at most locations. The LIFR ceiling at KEVV will improve quickly, but MVFR ceilings may linger through the morning. An area of showers may impact KPAH by mid-morning. As they move northeast they may develop into thunderstorms as they approach KEVV and KOWB around 18Z. Handled this convection with a vicinity mention. Later this afternoon through tonight there is a chance of thunderstorms moving eastward through the entire region. Confidence in the coverage and timing is too low to mention explicitly in the forecast. South winds may gust to around 20kts this afternoon. A cold front will reach KMVN and KCGI late tonight. MVFR or lower conditions are possible throughout the area overnight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...DRS