164
FXUS63 KPAH 042349
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
649 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this
  afternoon becoming more numerous Wednesday along a cold front.

- Any storms will be capable of producing very heavy downpours
  and frequent lightning.

- Drier weather expected Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Aloft, an upper level disturbance is moving across IA/MO this
afternoon. Morning cloud cover has slowed destabilization, but
recent clearing is beginning to help destabilize the boundary
layer. Recent mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE of generally 500 J/kg
or less while an area of cinh was also analyzed which matches
with the lack of cu field. Continued solar heating should boost
those numbers up closer to 500-1000 J/kg by the late afternoon.
The remnant circulation from an overnight MCS may initiate
convection this afternoon and this scattered convection will
move NE through the area into this evening. Low shear/marginal
CAPE should keep storms from reaching severe levels, although a
few strong ones are certainly possible. The main threats from
these will be flooding, and gusty winds.

A cold front will begin to move through the region Wednesday morning
and into the afternoon hours. A bit higher coverage of showers
and storms are expected along and ahead of this front although
the better forcing will be well north of the area. Drier weather
is expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles to the
northwest. Northerly winds will usher in a drier airmass with
dewpoints in the 50`s. Temperatures will also be a few degrees
cooler. For the weekend, northwest flow develops aloft which may
result in a few upper disturbances moving through at times with
a gradual increase in chances of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A cold front will approach the region tonight and make passage
on Wednesday. Along and ahead of the front, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will remain a possibility. The greatest
potential for that to occur appears to be late tonight into
Wednesday morning. That activity would likely be accompanied by
some MVFR ceiling and perhaps visibility restrictions. However,
confidence is fairly low given the wide spread in model data at
this time. Outside of the activity, mainly VFR conditions are
anticipated through much of tonight and by Wednesday afternoon.
South winds 5 to 10 knots tonight will become southwesterly
Wednesday morning, then shift to the west with frontal passage
during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...RJP