756
FXUS63 KPAH 231910
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms possible each day through Monday. Some could be strong
  to severe, particularly Sunday.

- Confidence in details such as the timing and intensity of
  storms is fairly low.

- Drying out Tuesday onward with sfc high pressure. Highs will
  be at or just below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

This afternoon there is some ongoing scattered convection moving
through southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY. Some of these
storms may be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds being
the main threats. Mid/upper level shortwave ridging is moving
overhead this evening and tonight. This should help to keep us dry
overnight. Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s.

An upper level trof swings through the northern Plains and into MN
tomorrow with a vertically stacked sfc low and cold front running to
the south. Some sporadic convection may develop along our southern
border in the morning hours, but otherwise we should remain dry till
the afternoon. Then in the afternoon, the main convection is
expected to be a line of storms that forms along the front and moves
through the area. With regards to severe potential, there is weak 0-
6 km shear at around 20 kts, 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and mid
level lapse rates are around 6.5-7 degC/km. Damaging winds would
likely be the main threat. The front then stalls over the area and
there is some discrepancy as to whether convection continues into
the overnight hours.

Saturday weak midlevel ridging builds in and should keep us mostly
dry with the exception of a few storms possible south of the front
with day time heating. On Sunday a trof over the Plains pushes into
the upper Midwest. The sfc low looks to move through northern MO and
southern IA. Mainly scattered convection is expected across the area
at this time, some of which may be strong to severe. The severe
threat looks pretty good with about 50 kts of 0-6 km shear, 2,500-
3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE, mid level lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 degC/km,
and even 20-30 kts of 0-1 km shear. This means all modes of severe
would be possible. CSU MLP still has us in a 60% hatched area for
severe potential Sunday. This is the same as it was for May 8th, and
the MLP has been performing well recently.

There is some model discrepancy on Monday with an embedded
shortwave aloft. The GFS swings this shortwave through Monday
afternoon and generates some convection over the area. The EC
however, swings it through Monday night and keeps us dry. Right
now NBM has some slight chance PoPs for Monday afternoon, but
this could change. Conditions shift to dry for Tuesday onward
with northwest flow aloft and ridging building over the Rockies
through midweek. Highs will be at or slightly below normal. Then
there is major model discrepancy with the progression of the
ridge to end the week. The EC keeps the ridge and moves it east
over us, where as the GFS breaks down the ridge before it can
reach us.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Cigs will gradually start lifting through this afternoon. We
could see some clearing overnight with scattered mid and high
clouds around. MVFR cigs come back around morning. Winds will
continue to be light and variable and then out of the south
tomorrow. Scattered convection is possible through this evening,
some may affect the terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...SHAWKEY