Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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651 FXUS63 KPAH 202011 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 311 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot the next couple days. - A front stalls over the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing a daily chances of rain and thunderstorms through this weekend. - Severe thunderstorm and more likely, flash flood risks will emerge in the Wednesday through Sunday period but each days risk will depend on prior activity and will have to be evaluated day to day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 This afternoon, there is a piece of shortwave energy working through the northern portions of the CWA, which may touch off a few showers and thunderstorms from around Perry County MO/IL through around Wayne County, IL. These should diminish near or just after sunset. A strong storm or two will be possible. High pressure will be in place over the Eastern Seaboard through Tuesday afternoon, allowing southerly flow to steadily increase off the Gulf of Mexico. A ridged pattern will be in place through Tuesday afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm well into the 80s or even low 90s for a good portion of the Quad State area. Conditions are expected to remain dry with the better forcing along the frontal boundary well to the west and northwest of the area. A shortwave is expected to dive into the northern Plains by late Tuesday morning, which will allow a surface low to quickly intensify as it lifts northeast toward the western Great Lakes. Model guidance still points toward an MCS developing over the Plains into southwest MO before shifting eastward through the night, likely reaching the Quad State very late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. If the MCS is strong enough to push into the area with the ridged pattern, then widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive by daybreak on Wednesday. As winds increase ahead of these features, sustained winds may reach close to Lake Wind Advisory criteria (15mph) by Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday is still looking like a messy rainy/stormy day across much of the Quad State area. The morning MCS would keep cloud cover and showers/storms in the forecast through most of the morning with a frontal boundary set to shift into the area during the afternoon. The combination of increased moisture (PWATs around 1.8 inches), lift along the frontal boundary and instability, will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. The area will also be in the right-entrance region of an upper jet max, leading to broad scale upward vertical motion over the Quad State. All this points toward widespread shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the day into Wednesday night. The slight risk is warranted across the Quad State for Wednesday; however, this may be somewhat conditional. If widespread showers and storms are ongoing throughout the day, then it may be difficult to realize the 2000-3000 J/kg of instability being painted out by the models guidance. In sort of a flip flop from this morning, the GFS has greater instability than the NAM does with the 12Z guidance. Shear be enough for organized severe (around 30kts), but it will largely depend on how the early morning convection behaves and whether it linger through much of the morning. Either way, heavy rainfall will be an issue especially due to rainfall rates in thunderstorms and saturated soils from recent rainfall. Most of the area is highlighted in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday. The frontal boundary will remain near the area through the end of the week and even into the weekend with additional shortwave energy passing through the area. This will lead to multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture is still ample so any showers or storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, gusty winds and hail. The greatest risk will be associated with each shortwave; however, determining the exact details on those is very difficult with much lead time. There will be a continued risk for at least isolated flash flooding into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions expected through this TAF issuance. Winds will remain light through Tuesday morning before winds gust by Tuesday afternoon. Gusts may reach around 15 to 20 kts during peak heating. High clouds will intermittently impact the TAF sites. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...KC