359
FXUS63 KPAH 172354
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
654 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may form later tonight. Locally dense fog cannot be ruled
  out.

- A few showers and thunderstorms may affect the region
  Saturday, especially west Kentucky. Sunday and Monday should
  be mainly dry.

- Active weather pattern sets up next week, with strong
  thunderstorms possible during the mid week period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An active weather pattern will remain established across the
CONUS. A weak upper low over the southern Plains will drift
slowly east, northeast tonight through Saturday. Additional
shower and thunderstorm activity should be mainly diurnally
driven. For the rest of this afternoon, best chances should be
over parts of SEMO with slight chances elsewhere. Saturday, the
best chance will be across west KY where better moisture will be
established.

Forecast soundings suggest fog formation is likely tonight for
some of the area. Conditions seems favorable as SFC-1km flow
will be quite weak, with temperatures headed below crossover
values, with weak high pressure overhead and wet ground
conditions due to rainfall. This will be something for the
evening and overnight shift to monitor. We do mention it in the
forecast.

Sunday and Monday should be mainly dry with ridging in place.
The pattern then becomes active beginning Tuesday and continuing
for the rest of next week. There are some notable differences
beyond Wednesday in terms of precip chances. The GFS/GEFS tends
drier beginning Thursday while the non U.S. models and their
ensemble means suggest it will remain unsettled with shower and
thunderstorm chances. The NBM accounts for those chances and for
now we will let them run, especially since WPC`s long range
PoPs essentially mirror the NBM (suggesting there`s not enough
confidence to try and improve on the going PoP values).

Temperatures will be mostly above average. It will be noticeably
warmer and humid Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the upper
80s to around 90, and dew points mostly in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Complicated forecast tonight, as an upper trough/low moves
slowly overhead. Winds will become calm this evening and where
skies clear, IFR or lower conditions in fog and/or low ceilings
are likely. However, the presence of the upper trough means
there could be substantial mid-level clouds to prevent such
development. Went with dense fog at KCGI and KMVN, and then
factored in more mid cloud farther south and east. Conditions
will improve to VFR by midday, but 4-5kft ceilings are likely
over much of the area through the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...DRS