541
FXUS63 KPAH 190843
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
343 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and very warm conditions are expected Sunday through
  Tuesday.

- Chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday night
  and continue through next Saturday. Wednesday afternoon
  through Wednesday night will have the best chances of
  thunderstorms and some potential for severe weather. A heavy
  rainfall and flooding threat could eventually develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Dense fog has developed just over the border in NE Arkansas and
NW Tennessee, where more substantial rainfall fell yesterday.
Across the Quad State, a few climatologically favored sites
have had reduced vsbys, with only CGI dropping below a mile for
now. Patchy fog early this morning near the rivers/lakes and in
areas which received rainfall Saturday is possible, and an SPS
has been issued for this concern.

Ridging moves over the Quad State Sunday through Tuesday,
allowing for dry conditions and temperatures to soar to well
above normal. An upper level disturbance moving northeastward to
the Northern Great Lakes Monday may slightly disrupt the ridge,
but models agree on high pressure centered to our east keeping
the rain to our northwest. Light winds today will become breezy
and southerly by Tuesday; a Lake Wind Advisory may eventually be
needed for Tuesday. Highs today reach the mid to upper 80s with
more than a few 90s likely on Tuesday. Dew points remain in the
60s throughout, not high enough to add more than a couple
degrees for the heat index vs temperature, but as it is this
will be the hottest weather so far this year so treat outdoor
activities like summertime.

Models continue shifting a little later on the midweek system as
low pressure tracks northeastward from the lee of the Rockies
towards the Upper Midwest. Of the three ensembles, the GFS is
the faster in progressing the low. A boundary with showers and
thunderstorms approaches the Quad State Tuesday evening, but
ensembles show decreasing thunder chances as it moves into the
Quad State and the NAM struggles to maintain much more than
showers. The D3 SPC outlook shifts westward and limits
northwestern portions of the Quad State to a marginal risk.

The cold front will provide better forcing, though a timing
near Wednesday evening or possibly even into the overnight hours
may be somewhat limiting. Convective parameters are present and
adequate, suggesting a few strong to severe storms are
possible. In the end, the more important question may be how far
into Tennessee the front can reach. High pressure passes by to
our north Thursday but the frontal boundary could result in
several rounds of showers for the remainder of the week as many
models bring in a smaller scale disturbance from the southwest.
Models still have fairly broad uncertainty regarding northern
stream systems for the end of the week and weekend but suggest
active weather. Repeated rounds of rainfall for an already rainy
month may result in some flooding issues.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through much of the forecast period.
The main exception is the potential for patchy fog overnight,
which may reduce visibilities to MVFR or IFR at times. Calm
winds tonight will become light and variable on Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...RJP