Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
541 FXUS66 KPDT 040932 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 232 AM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...The current weather pattern is marked by building high pressure just off the California coast and a deep low centered around the BC/Alaskan coast. Wedged between is us is a band of amplified WNW flow aloft that will lead to another round of gusty winds and showers, however rain activity is expected to occur primarily across the mountains for today, as the wind regime aloft is a bit more zonal than yesterday`s, leading to more prominent shadowing. Still, hi-res guidance shows light shower activity across the lower elevations early this morning, before the upper-level winds mix down and make for yet another windy day for the forecast area. Did issue a Wind Advisory for the Simcoe Highlands, where guidance was pretty consistent in depicting wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range during the day today, with exposed ridgetops potentially seeing higher gusts. Elsewhere, winds will nudge toward advisory criteria, particularly across the Southern Blues and Washington Basin, however confidence wasn`t quite high enough to pull the trigger on an advisory. Expect winds to approach 40 mph at times out of the west for those areas, however. Shower activity will persist in the mountains through the overnight hours heading into Wednesday before high pressure to our south begins to take over, making for clear and dry conditions with warming temperatures expected through the rest of the week. The strongest of the high pressure is expected to remain to our south over the coming days, capping the warming to an extent, however high temps across our lower elevations are expected to approach the 90s by the end of the period. Evans/74 .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Models are in good agreement that a ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest will extend up into the Pacific Northwest Friday and Saturday. This will boost high temperatures across the lower elevation into the upper 80s and 90s Friday and Saturday being roughly 10-15 degrees above normal. An upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will begin to approach the Pacific Northwest Friday placing the forecast area under a southwest flow heading into the weekend. This will lead to some weak instability across central and northeast Oregon providing a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. The remnants of the trough begins moving into the region late Saturday serving as a better trigger for some thunderstorms again across the eastern portion of central Oregon and northeast Oregon. The weak trough will exit far eastern Oregon Sunday afternoon leaving enough instability to trigger some thunderstorms mainly east of LaGrande. In the wake of the departing weak trough a ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the region early next week maintaining the warmer than normal conditions (5-10 degrees) over the forecast area. && .AVIATION...06Z TAFS (Previous Discussion)...Winds have decreased, for the most part and should remain 15 kts or less overnight before increasing again Tuesday afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 kts as a weak weather system moves through. This system will also bring rain during the morning hours, mainly for DLS PDT, YKM and ALW. The best chances are at DLS, with lesser chances elsewhere. Latest guidance seems to be lower on rain chances. Sill will handle with TEMPO and PROB30 groups. Also, earlier TAFS had MVFR for DLS. Those have now been removed as confidence has decreased, but while confidence is low (<30%) MVFR conditions can not be ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 73 48 75 49 / 20 10 0 0 ALW 73 51 76 51 / 40 10 0 0 PSC 76 50 79 52 / 20 0 0 0 YKM 72 41 77 47 / 30 0 0 0 HRI 77 49 79 50 / 10 0 0 0 ELN 68 43 74 47 / 40 0 0 0 RDM 73 45 79 47 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 72 48 75 49 / 30 10 0 0 GCD 76 47 81 51 / 10 0 0 0 DLS 70 51 79 52 / 40 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for WAZ521. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...77