821
FXUS61 KPHI 031321
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
921 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system moves through the area today. High pressure moves
in tonight remaining in control through early Wednesday. An upper
level low then will move into the Great Lakes, keeping things unsettled
into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this morning. Some clearing and
destabilization is ongoing, though some clouds have started to
redevelop. Main update was cutting PoPs a little bit for later
this afternoon. Thinking the highest chance for
showers/thunderstorms will be over South Jersey and southern
Delmarva, but only around a 30-40% chance as any convection will
be relatively scattered.

Hi res guidance shows MUCAPE values around the 1000 J/kg range by
the afternoon, and perhaps more notably DCAPE increasing to near
1000 J/kg as well. With dewpoints in the 60s, the ingredients are
there for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop by
mid afternoon. With the dry mid- level air, convective initiation
(CI) will likely fail early in the afternoon. However, modest low-
level moisture and continued CI attempts in persistent areas should
eventually support some isolated to scattered convection by around
mid to late afternoon (3 PM onward). There will be some surface
convergence across the coastal plain across southern NJ, which
should be a focusing mechanism for CI, and will likely result in the
greatest coverage/strength of convection in this area as well. The
severe potential with these storms, however, will remain on the low
end with deep layer shear being rather lackluster in the afternoon
around 20 kts at best. Nevertheless, the higher DCAPE and mid-level
dry air could support some downbursts with any more robust cells
that are able to develop. With PWAT values in the 1-1.5 inch range,
a few good downpours may be possible with a stronger storm, but any
flooding concerns will be very localized and brief. High
temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 80s in most areas under a
mix of sun and clouds.

Showers/storms diminish Monday evening due to the loss of daytime
heating and also as high pressure starts to build in to the north.
This will result in skies starting to clear out with winds becoming
light onshore. This could lead to some patchy fog by the overnight
period across the coastal plain. Generally expect lows in the low to
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper ridge moves in Tuesday, so this along with a
surface high means mostly fair  weather for Tuesday. Increasing
clouds later on as the next system approaches. Highs will be a bit
above normal with low/mid 80s most areas with 70s along the shore.

The next system moves in Wednesday and has sped up a bit from the
past few set of model runs. Moisture returns to the region on the
back side of the retreating high. Low pressure and its associated
cold front will move towards the area later Wed and Wed night. Pops
increase to likely overnight most areas and there is a chance for
thunder along with the showers. The clouds will likely cut into the
previous days mild temperatures, but readings will still be near
normal Wed. with upper 70s to low 80s most areas. Rainfall of 1/4 to
1/2 inch expected thru Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much has changed with regards to the long term. It still looks
like Thursday morning will feature showery/tstms weather as an
upper low, and a front advancing ahead of it, arrives over the
Middle Atlantic. Once the front passes, cooler and drier air
will be across the region with colder air aloft too. This upper
cool air will keep the atmosphere unsettled Fri and into the
weekend. It will be dry much of the time, but chances for
showers or a tstm exist each day. The showers will favor the
peak heating times, so mid/late afternoon perhaps lasting into
the early evening.

Temperatures will be above normal Thursday with low/mid 80s most
areas. It will be humid as well until the cool dry air arrives later
on. Following that, seasonable readings are expected for Fri and
into the weekend with highs in the mid/upper 70s and lows in the 50s
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Prevailing VFR conditions with scattered clouds. Chance
(30%-40%) of a shower/tstm after 18Z, mainly from around
KACY/KMIV. Brief period of sub- VFR conditions possible with a
stronger storm. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR this evening but some visibility restrictions
appear likely overnight around MIV and ACY due to mist/fog.
Remaining sites should stay VFR. Winds becoming light onshore
generally out of the east at around 5 knots or less. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday...Primarily VFR though showers/isolated thunderstorms
arriving late in the day could bring some restrictions.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Restrictions likely (70-80%)
with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms moving
through.

Thursday Night through Friday...Conditions should lift back to
VFR at some point but lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms
could result in further restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through tonight however expect
some showers and potentially even a few thunderstorms over the
waters this afternoon. Seas mainly 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions possible (a 30-40%
chance) with gusts nearing 25 kt. Periods of showers and thunderstorms
likely.

Rip Currents...

A LOW risk for the development of rip currents is in place for
today and Tuesday. While winds turn partially onshore for
today and then fully onshore for Tuesday, wind speeds will be
around 10 MPH, with continuing 1 to 2 foot waves and short to
medium period which keeps the overall risk for rip current
development low.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and
piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the
water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara