904
FXUS61 KPHI 301907
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
307 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds holds dominant influence over the region
into Sunday. Unsettled conditions could return by late Sunday
and continue into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will influence our region through the duration
of the near term. Pressures will continue to rise as surface high
pressure currently centered over the Great Lakes region continues to
move eastwards/southeastwards with time. Overall, we are looking at
a dry forecast with pleasant and tranquil conditions.

Rest of this afternoon...There is some shortwave energy hanging
about over/near the region. Guidance has mostly dropped the few
isolated pop-up showers for later this afternoon over our
northeastern and eastern NJ counties and areas near the NJ coast.
Still, a quick and stray pop-up shower over these areas should not
be ruled out completely given the lingering shortwave energy.
Otherwise, it will be a pleasant day with highs mainly in the low to
mid 70s and dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Diurnal Cu/Sc is expected
to continue developing; skies in some areas may become partly cloudy
due to this.

Tonight...Mostly clear skies with light NNW winds. Winds may go
light and variable in a few locations but region wide calm winds are
not anticipated. Still, radiational cooling will likely take hold
given the setup. Lows will mostly be in the mid to upper 40s with
low 50s around the metro areas. Low to mid 50s are anticipated close
to the shore.

Friday...A beautiful day with surface high pressure in control.
Plenty of sunshine with highs mainly in the mid 70s and dewpoints in
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate over the area through Saturday night as
it gradually moves eastward from the midwestern states towards and
then off the east coast.

With surface high pressure in control of the region, expect a nice
and quiet short term with pleasant conditions through Saturday
night. Mainly clear skies will be present Friday night with light
winds in the forecast. This will lead to good radiational cooling
with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. For Saturday, we are looking at
highs near 80F with comfortable dewpoints in the 40s. Simply put,
being outdoors on Saturday will be enjoyable.

By Saturday night, the high pressure center will be offshore leading
to winds turning more southerly with some increasing mid and high
clouds. This will keep it a little warmer than Friday night with
lows mostly in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long range forecast remains a bit tricky and uncertain as the
upper level flow pattern becomes more complex. Sunday into Monday
there will be the next approaching upper level trough from the west
as it move eastward across Canada while at the same time a closed
low may stall south of the Canadian Maritimes. The approaching upper
trough will be trying to bring more shortwave energy and unsettled
weather to the area but it`s possible much of this gets held at bay
if the closed low over the western Atlantic sets up more of a
blocking pattern over the east coast. If this occurs it could keep
us mainly under the influence of an upper level ridge sandwiched
between these two systems. For the time being, the consensus
forecast calls for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning with the
daytime hours on Monday leaning towards being the drier day of the
two. Rain chances then will be increasing some as we head into
Tuesday through Thursday. So it`s not looking like a washout
during this period but there will be the potential for some
bouts of unsettled weather from showers and storms, again,
mainly during the afternoon and evening time periods.
Temperatures during this period will be seasonably warm with
highs mostly in the low to mid 80s and lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. NNW winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts.
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. NNW winds 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Friday...VFR/SKC. NNW/NW winds 5-10 kts with gusts near 20 kts. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR. High confidence.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by
the afternoon do to showers/storms. Moderate confidence.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs could linger. Moderate
confidence.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by
the afternoon do to showers/storms. Low confidence

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through Friday. Fair weather through
Friday with surface high pressure building in. Winds mainly NNW
10-15 kts. Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Rip Currents...

For Thursday, northwest winds around 10 mph will veer northeast in
the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 2 to 3 feet. With the lighter
winds and shorter period swells, there will continue to be a LOW
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents along the New
Jersey and Delaware beaches.

Friday will be very similar to Thursday. North winds around 10 mph
will become northeast later in the day. Breaking waves will be about
2 feet. This will result in a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

As always, rip currents can still develop, and often occur in the
vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if
venturing out into the water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...OHara/Wunderlin
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL/Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
AVIATION...MJL/Wunderlin
MARINE...MJL/Wunderlin