356
FXUS61 KPHI 302303
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
703 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure holds dominant influence over the region into
Sunday, then some unsettled conditions could return later
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM, cumulus is slowly diminishing as we are passed
peak heating. A few showers were noted on radar on the western
side of Chesapeake Bay however those are dissipating as they
remain southwest of our eastern Maryland Shore counties. The
more pronounced cumulus so far across northern New Jersey do
not appear to produce any brief shower or sprinkle as they slide
southeastward. The wind will also be diminishing some as the
vertical mixing wanes with sunset. No significant changes were
needed with this update.

Otherwise, surface high pressure will influence our region
through Friday. Pressures will rise as surface high pressure
currently centered over the Great Lakes region continues to move
eastward/southeastward with time. Overall, we are looking at a
dry forecast with pleasant and tranquil conditions.

A mostly clear sky tonight with lighter NNW winds. Winds may go
light and variable in a few locations but region wide calm
winds are not anticipated. Still, good radiational cooling
conditions set in and with dew points in the 40s and even some
30s, lows will mostly be in the 40s with low 50s around the
metro areas. Low to mid 50s are anticipated close to the shore.

For Friday, a beautiful day with surface high pressure in
control. Plenty of sunshine with highs mainly in the mid 70s
with a very dry air mass remains in place (dew points in the
40s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate over the area through Saturday night as
it gradually moves eastward from the midwestern states towards and
then off the east coast.

With surface high pressure in control of the region, expect a nice
and quiet short term with pleasant conditions through Saturday
night. Mainly clear skies will be present Friday night with light
winds in the forecast. This will lead to good radiational cooling
with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. For Saturday, we are looking at
highs near 80F with comfortable dewpoints in the 40s. Simply put,
being outdoors on Saturday will be enjoyable.

By Saturday night, the high pressure center will be offshore leading
to winds turning more southerly with some increasing mid and high
clouds. This will keep it a little warmer than Friday night with
lows mostly in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long range forecast remains a bit tricky and uncertain as the
upper level flow pattern becomes more complex. Sunday into Monday
there will be the next approaching upper level trough from the west
as it move eastward across Canada while at the same time a closed
low may stall south of the Canadian Maritimes. The approaching upper
trough will be trying to bring more shortwave energy and unsettled
weather to the area but it`s possible much of this gets held at bay
if the closed low over the western Atlantic sets up more of a
blocking pattern over the east coast. If this occurs it could keep
us mainly under the influence of an upper level ridge sandwiched
between these two systems. For the time being, the consensus
forecast calls for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning with the
daytime hours on Monday leaning towards being the drier day of the
two. Rain chances then will be increasing some as we head into
Tuesday through Thursday. So it`s not looking like a washout
during this period but there will be the potential for some
bouts of unsettled weather from showers and storms, again,
mainly during the afternoon and evening time periods.
Temperatures during this period will be seasonably warm with
highs mostly in the low to mid 80s and lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. North-northwest winds 8-12 knots, diminishing to
4-8 knots. A few terminals may have a wind go light and variable.
Moderate confidence.

Friday...VFR. North-northwest winds increasing to around 10
knots with some gusts near 20 knots, then becoming more
northwest. A sea breeze should stay east of KACY. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday...Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by the
afternoon due to some showers/storms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs could linger.

Tuesday...Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by the
afternoon due to some showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, northwest winds 5 to 15 mph in the morning will
veer and become southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet. With fairly light winds and
shorter period swells, there will continue to be a LOW risk for
the development of dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey
and Delaware beaches.

Saturday will be very similar to Friday. Northwest winds around
10 mph will become southeast later in the day. Breaking waves
will be 1 to 2 feet. This will once again result in a LOW risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents along the New
Jersey and Delaware beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and
piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the
water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Gorse/OHara/Wunderlin
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL/Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
AVIATION...Gorse/MJL/Wunderlin
MARINE...MJL/Wunderlin