044
FXZS60 NSTU 250058
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
158 PM SST Fri May 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Cloud coverage throughout the day reported mainly mid to upper
level clouds with a light to gentle easterly breeze, associated
with a ridge over the area. The latest satellite imageries
together with the upper air data from this afternoon (25/00Z)
confirms these conditions as a dry air mass lingers over the
territory. However, the latest model data shows a weak surface
trough to the east moving over the area by overnight tonight into
Saturday morning. This trough is expected to bring scattered to
numerous showers, and not reach flash flooding criteria for this
time frame. Model data is showing a dry air mass following the
aforementioned surface trough, bringing less moisture for the rest
of the short term forecast period. Once the surface trough passes
the area, expect scattered showers with a gentle easterly breeze
for the rest of the weekend into the new week.

As the new week progresses, model data is showing a boundary
layer moving closer and over the area by at least midweek. This
feature will likely bring adverse weather conditions for this time
frame. Winds will also remain gentle turning southeast towards the
end of the long term forecast period. Therefore, expect scattered
showers for the new week, increasing to numerous showers by
midweek into the rest of the week. Winds will also remain at
gentle to moderate from the east for the majority of the new week,
turning southeast on Thursday.

&&

.Marine...
Calm and serene conditions has been observed across the American
Samoa shorelines in the last 24 hours. These observations are
futher supported by the latest satellite and model data. Combined
seas of 5 to 7 feet will remain across the coastal waters tonight
through Saturday. Seas are expected to remain below the advisory
thresholds through at least early Tuesday. These conditions also
conincides with the light and gentle easterlies for the time
frame. However, model data is showing a long period (>15 sec) south
swell moving into the area by Tuesday. This large swell is
expected to enhance seas and surfs starting Tuesday through the
end of the forecast period. Also a reminder, long periods can
generate strong rip currents underwater and much higher surfs
closer to the shorelines. Thus, will continue to monitor
conditions for any changes in the forecast.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

JTAllen