Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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728 FXUS65 KPSR 220857 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 157 AM MST Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will be near normal through the weekend before warming back above normal during the first part of next week. Typical afternoon and early evening springtime breeziness will continue into the weekend, with the highest wind speeds expected on Friday. Dry conditions will persist into next week. && .DISCUSSION... The weather pattern through the rest of the week will keep large scale broad troughing dominant over much of the Western U.S., including the Desert Southwest. A series of shortwave troughs will continue to rotate within the larger scale trough, but each disturbance will mostly stay to the north of our region. Given the influence from the trough, H5 heights over Arizona are forecast to remain near climatological normals through the upcoming weekend. NBM forecast temperatures through Friday have trended slightly upward over the past couple days, but highs are still expected to top out within the normal range over the next few days with highs mostly in the mid 90s. For Friday into Saturday, one of the passing disturbances is likely to extend far enough south to have more influence over the Desert Southwest. As a result, Friday should see a bit of an uptick in winds, especially across southeast California where gusts of 25-35 mph are likely to be possible. H5 heights should also briefly dip lower for Saturday which should have a noticeable impact on temperatures as the latest NBM guidance shows highs falling back closer to 90 degrees. However, this "cooler" weather will be short-lived as a ridge is likely to begin building into our region from the south starting Sunday before peaking around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Forecast temperatures quickly trend upward early next week with highs potentially reaching 100 degrees as early as Memorial Day. Guidance also shows a 50/50 shot at reaching 105 degrees over a good portion of the lower deserts mid next week before beginning to trend back lower at some point later next week. Through the entire timeframe, skies are forecast to be clear to mostly clear with no rain chances. && .AVIATION...Updated at 05Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with fairly light winds following diurnal tendencies under clear skies. A few westerly wind gusts return Wednesday afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with clear skies and overall light winds. Winds will generally be aob 10kts out of the west to southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions, near normal temperatures, and typical afternoon and early evening breeziness will continue through Thursday. Winds will tend to follow their typical diurnal tendencies and terrain influences in all districts with periodic gusts up to around 20 mph in the afternoon and early evenings. A passing dry weather system on Friday into Saturday is likely to bring an increase in winds with gusts of 20-30 mph over a good portion of the area. This could lead to areas of elevated fire weather conditions mainly on Friday. MinRH values through the weekend will mostly fall to between 8-15% each day with overnight MaxRHs mostly between 25-40%. Temperatures over the weekend will be near to slightly below normal before warming to above normal early next week as stronger high pressure settles over the region. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Frieders FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman