468
FXUS65 KPSR 292022
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
122 PM MST Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist through at least
the weekend, but expect continued above normal temperatures as
high pressure generally dominates across the region. High
temperatures each day across the lower deserts will remain several
degrees above normal with readings between 100 and 106 degrees
under sunny to mostly sunny skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The hot, dry, and tranquil weather pattern persists across the
Southwest as dry zonal flow prevails with upper ridging now shifting
east across the central CONUS. This pattern will continue to promote
abundant sunshine across the region with current visible satellite
imagery this afternoon only showing a few passing high clouds across
the state. Ensemble guidance indicate 500 mb heights will remain
steady around 583-585 dm through the remainder of this week and into
the start of next week. This will keep afternoon temperatures
each day several degrees above normal as lower desert highs top
out in the 100-106 degree range for most places. With these
temperatures will come widespread Minor and pockets of Moderate
HeatRisk, so the necessary heat safety precautions should be
exercised. Given the current pattern, winds each day will overall
remain light outside of periodic afternoon wind gusts to around 20
mph. A weak shortwave pushing through the Southwest this weekend
may slightly enhance winds and also lead to a degree or two dip in
temperatures.

Going into the middle part of next week, uncertainty increases as
ensemble and deterministic models depict a cutoff low setting up off
the coast of southern California and the Baja Peninsula while strong
ridging builds across the western CONUS. Ensemble cluster analysis
shows good agreement in regards to ridging building/strengthening
over the western CONUS, but the strength and position of the
cutoff low is uncertain. At this point, little in the way of
sensible impacts is expected from the cutoff low with the greater
impacts coming from the aforementioned ridge. Global ensembles
indicate the ridge pushing average 500 mb heights to around 590
dm, which would translate to temperatures climbing well above
normal. NBM temperature forecast spread increases mid/late next
given some of the aforementioned uncertainty, but overall
temperature trends increase closer to 110 degrees. The average
(1991-2020) first occurrence of 110 degrees in Phoenix and Yuma is
June 11th and for El Centro is June 14th, so the first occurrence
would be slightly earlier than normal if temperatures were to
reach 110 degrees in these places next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1715Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:

Winds will follow their typical diurnal patterns with some
extended periods of light and variable winds. Wind speeds will
generally be aob 10 kt through the TAF period, however, some
periodic gusts into the teens will be possible once again this
afternoon. Mostly clear skies will prevail, except for a few high
clouds through this afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

At KIPL, winds will mainly be out of the west through the TAF
period whereas at KBLH winds will be out of the south to
southwest. Gusts into the mid 20s are expected to develop again
this evening at KIPL. At KBLH, wind speeds will be aob 10 kt
sustained through the TAF period, with the potential for
occasional gusts into the mid to upper teens this afternoon. Clear
skies will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of this
week with daily highs remaining above normal. Overall light winds
will follow diurnal tendencies each day with afternoon gusts in
the mid-teens to around 20 mph. MinRH values will range between
5-10% each afternoon while overnight Max RHs range between 20-40%
for most places.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Whittock/Frieders
FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Kuhlman