Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
669 FNUS55 KPSR 201047 FWFPSR Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest and South-Central Arizona and Southeast California National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 347 AM MST Mon May 20 2024 ...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS TODAY AFTERNOON... .DISCUSSION... A short-wave trough moving through the region today will generate widespread breezy to locally windy conditions. Strongest wind gusts may be generated by a band of high-based showers in South- Central AZ this afternoon, with 40-50% chance for southwesterly gusts in excess of 40 mph, primarily between 1300-1700MST. There may be a brief period, up to 2-3 hours in eastern districts during the early to mid afternoon, with critical fire weather conditions. Outside of shower-generated gusts, widespread wind gusts, across all districts, up to 25-35 mph are anticipated with some localized areas like the Imperial Valley seeing up to 35-40 mph. This will result in widespread elevated fire weather, borderline red flag, conditions today as minimum RHs fall to 10-15%. The chance for wetting rain is near zero as there will be a lot of sub-cloud evaporation before reaching the surface. Land managers should be cautious for rapid, uncontrolled spread of any ongoing fires or new starts Monday. Winds will subside fairly quickly this evening and speeds will not be as strong Tuesday, but still with afternoon gusts up to 15-25 mph. Directions Tuesday will follow typical and terrain influences. It will be drier Tuesday, with minimum afternoon RH values down to 5-12% Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR. AZZ132-202300- West Central Deserts/Northwest Maricopa County/Greater Phoenix Area/Southwest Deserts/Southwest Maricopa County/ Northwest and North-Central Pinal County- Phoenix BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ- 347 AM MST Mon May 20 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. * Max Temperature.................88-95. * 24 hr trend..................5 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................9-13 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 30 to 40 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......11100 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......Southwest 25 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Excellent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................57-67. * 24 hr trend..................6 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................26-39 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 20 to 30 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................87-94. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................7-11 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......8700 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......West 11 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Very good. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 59-69. Highs 90-96. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 60-70. Highs 89-96. South winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 60-70. Highs 88-96. South winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 58-68. Highs 86-93. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 58-68. Highs 87-94. $$ AZZ131-CAZ231-202300- Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ- Lower Colorado River Valley CA- 347 AM MST Mon May 20 2024 /347 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024/ .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming sunny in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................91-96. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................7-11 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 35 to 45 mph in the morning becoming 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........9000 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........West 24 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Excellent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................57-62. * 24 hr trend..................6 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................37-49 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 10 to 20 mph in the evening becoming 5 to 10 mph after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................90-95. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................8-12 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........7600 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........West 8 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 60-65. Highs 92-97. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 61-66. Highs 92-97. South winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 60-65. Highs 90-95. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 58-63. Highs 88-93. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 58-64. Highs 89-94. $$ AZZ133-202300- Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills- Southern Tonto NF/West San Carlos BIA/South Portion Ft Apache BIA/ CAZ- 347 AM MST Mon May 20 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny in the morning becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................76-90. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................10-15 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming west 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 30 to 40 mph. * Chance of Precip................10 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................47-60. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................32-51 pct. * 24 hr trend..................13 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 25 to 35 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................76-90. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................8-12 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct drier. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 20 to 30 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 47-61. Highs 77-91. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 48-62. Highs 77-91. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 48-63. Highs 77-91. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 48-63. Highs 75-90. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 48-63. Highs 76-90. $$ CAZ232-202300- Imperial County And Eastern Riverside County- 347 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny in the morning becoming sunny in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................85-95. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................8-15 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 35 to 45 mph in the morning becoming 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................58-64. * 24 hr trend..................5 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................29-51 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 15 to 25 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................86-95. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................9-14 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 61-67. Highs 88-97. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 60-66. Highs 87-96. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 58-66. Highs 84-93. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 57-64. Highs 82-91. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 57-67. Highs 85-93. $$ CAZ230-202300- Joshua Tree National Park- 347 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................71-90. * 24 hr trend..................6 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................8-23 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 25 to 35 mph in the morning becoming 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Clear. * Min Temperature.................48-61. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Max Humidity....................31-44 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 10 to 20 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............West 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. .TUESDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................75-88. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................10-14 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..North 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northwest 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * LAL.............................1. * Haines High Level Index.........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .EXTENDED... .WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 51-65. Highs 78-92. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Minimum relative humidity may be lower than 15 percent. .THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 50-63. Highs 76-91. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. .FRIDAY...Clear. Lows 48-63. Highs 73-88. West winds 10 to 20 mph. .SATURDAY...Clear. Lows 48-61. Highs 70-87. .SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 48-64. Highs 74-89. $$ .8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Monday May 27th through Wednesday May 29th: Near normal temperatures and near median precipitation.