531
FXUS65 KPUB 041001
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
401 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Still monitoring Kiowa county for thunderstorm development
   towards 12z though signal for morning convection appears to
   be shifting northeastward in latest runs.

 - Otherwise, dry and a little cooler than yesterday but
   temperatures still running above normal.

 - Other than isolated light showers along the mountains, dry
   conditions with afternoon clouds expected Wednesday and
   Thursday.

 - Showers and thunderstorm chances increase for the end of
   this week and through the start of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 359 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Upper trough is moving across CO early this morning with some light
rain reported at LXV a little earlier tonight.  As the trough axis
continues to trek eastward across the eastern plains there is still
the potential for some showers and even some stronger thunderstorms
across far eastern sections of the area. Frontal boundary will drop
southward across the plains early this morning which may serve as a
trigger for thunderstorms across Kiowa county as the cap aloft
weakens and surface dew points in the 60s result in some stout CAPE
aloft.  Mean MUCape off HREF show up to 2000 J/kg across far eastern
sections of the area through 12z, though latest 06z runs have
shifted convection farther north and east in better proximity to low
level southerly flow on the east side of the surface low. Will
maintain some isolated pops early this morning for now but trends
are leaning towards a drier forecast with activity staying to the
north and east of Kiowa county. A conditional severe thunderstorm
risk can not be ruled out if thunderstorms can fire along the
frontal boundary this morning across Kiowa county.

It will be slightly cooler today behind the upper trough and cold
front.  North winds will be gusty for eastern areas this morning
before tailing back this afternoon.  Northwesterly afternoon breezes
will pick up again across the mountains but humidity values above
critical thresholds, along with non-receptive fuels due to green up
will preclude the need for any fire weather highlights. Temperatures
will remain above normal today with highs in the 80s to around 90
across the lower elevations and 60s and 79s for the mountain
communities.  Upper ridge builds in from the southwest overnight
with clearing skies and mild overnight lows.  Have cooled off valley
locations closer to guidance where clear skies and dry surface dew
points should allow for efficient radiational cooling.
-KT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Wednesday - Thursday: For part of the midweek period, relatively
quiet weather is anticipated. Northwest flow will prevail over south
central and southeast Colorado as a ridge of high pressure sits
across the four corners region. While overall forcing will be
lacking with this pattern, weak orographic forcing is expected over
the mountains. Given this forcing, isolated showers are anticipated
each afternoon over the mountains, and especially Thursday.
Otherwise, dry conditions with some afternoon clouds are expected
across the area. Temperatures during these couple of days will
continue the hot trend. Both days will remain well above seasonal
values for early June across the region, with the hottest
temperatures across the plains.

Friday - Monday: The rest of the long term period brings an uptick
in active weather for south central and southeastern Colorado. While
flow will remain northwesterly over the region, surface winds will
take on easterly components, allowing for richer moisture to push
back into the area, especially across the eastern plains. While
forcing will still remain minor, weak orographic forcing in
combination with the increased moisture will allow for more
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area each
afternoon, especially along and east of the I-25 corridor. Given the
surge in moisture and expected instability increase with it, strong
to severe storms will be possible, though adequate shear magnitudes
for organized convection remain questionable at this time. If a wave
within the flow can pass over the area and increase shear a bit,
storms may be able to become more organized. Otherwise though,
any precipitation present each day will dissipate during the
late evening to overnight hours. Looking at temperatures, a
cooling trend is anticipated. Much of the area will start to
drop to around seasonal values.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR mid/high level cloud deck will clear to the east this afternoon
with enhanced northerly winds around 10-20 kts decreasing and
shifting from the east by this evening at KCOS and KPUB.  Winds at
KALS will also stay northerly around 10-15 kts most of the day
before decreasing this evening.  This will be followed by light
winds and clear skies tonight. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT