Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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129 FXUS65 KPUB 032045 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 245 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very unlikely (<10%) chance for a severe storm over Kiowa County during the overnight tonight. - Slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow, but still hot! - Mostly dry conditions with well above seasonal temperatures expected through the end of the work week. - Rain shower and thunderstorm chances increase toward the end of the work week into next week. - Increasing flows in area streams and rivers with expected enhanced runoff of high mountain snowpack. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A weak trough aloft will pass over the region this afternoon through the evening, the response will be isolated weak showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. The relatively weak cold front associated with the surface trough will push over the plains during the overnight, providing the potential for a rogue thunderstorm over Kiowa County. Data suggests around 1500 J/kg of CAPE over the region as the trough passes by, but there is a Saturday cap in place with CIN values around 300 J/kg - which is consistent amongst most guidance. If, and that is a strong if, the CIN is lower and the lift can break the cap, I believe there is severe risk for a few hours in the early morning over Kiowa County. However, I do not think that will happen so I did not include that in the forecast. It will be slightly cooler tomorrow in response to the trough passage with high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s over the plains, the 70s to low 80s over the mountain valleys, and the 60s to 70s over Lake and Teller Counties. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Upper level ridging remains progged to build across the Rockies into the end of the week, allowing for hot and mainly dry conditions to prevail across south central and southeast Colorado. Highs through the end of the work week will warm to well above seasonal levels in the mid 80s to upper 90s across the plains, with highs in the 70s and 80s expected across the mountain valleys and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Overnight lows will also be at or above seasonal levels, with lows staying above the freezing mark leading to enhanced melting of the high mountain snowpack, and some increased flows in area streams, especially across the upper Arkansas River basin where snowpack remains above normal. By Friday and continuing into early next week, latest model data continues to support a retrograding ridge as passing waves down the backside of the ridge across the Northern Rockies, develops a long wave trough across the Upper Midwest into the Central Conus into next week. This will allow for available moisture to increase across the region, and will in turn lead to increasing chances of daily showers and thunderstorms areawide through the weekend and into early next week. With the increased moisture and expected increase in showers and storms, temperatures will decrease as well, though look to remain at to slightly above seasonal levels into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period for KALS, KCOS, and KPUB. Some gusty west-northwest winds are expected during the afternoon, but after the sunsets, primarily a northwest component will take over as a trough passes aloft. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKELLY LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...SKELLY