Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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489 FXUS65 KPUB 172036 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 236 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One or two strong storms tomorrow generally north of US50 - Warm dry and windy for Sunday and Monday with thunderstorms possible again by Tuesday across northern portions of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Currently... A beautiful day across he region this afternoon. Sat pix showing mostly sunny skies over the area with temps in the 80s eastern plains and 70s most of I-25 corridor. Valleys were in the 50s with 30s and 40s mtns. Rest of Today into Tonight... Although an isolated shower could be possible over the higher terrain area, expect dry weather. Gusty winds will continue over the central mtns otherwise winds should be relatively light over the remainder of the region, with typical nocturnal flow over the plains. Seasonable mins expected tonight with 50s plains and U30s valleys. Tomorrow... Main concern this day may be one or two strong storms over the Palmer Divide region by mid to late afternoon. Although shear will be ample, low level upslope flow will only have marginal CAPE values (500-700 J/kg) by late afternoon. Storms will likely get going by mid afternoon over the Pikes Peak Massif region and then push east over the modest unstable airmass over the Palmer Divide. This will allow for one or two of the cells to become strong, with gusty winds and small hail possible. Area is in general thunder at this time but would not be too surprised to see this area upgraded to marginal with later SPCs forecasts. Although all areas could see a rumble of thunder tomorrow, the overall best chances will be from US50 northward, especially during the mid to late afternoon time period. Max temps tomorrow over the plains will be similar to todays max temps, while the valleys may be 2-3F warmer than today. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Thunderstorms will linger into Saturday evening across northern portions of the forecast area as convective outflows off the Palmer Divide drive another reinforcing northerly surge southward across the southeast plains. While shear will be sufficient for a strong storm or two, low level moisture and resultant CAPE may be the more limiting factor, but a strong storm or two will be possible into the evening hours. Increasing southwest flow Sunday and Monday will bring predominantly dry and windy conditions to southern CO along with above normal temperatures. Highs will be pushing 90 for portions of the southeast plains these days. Critical fire weather conditions will be in place but fuels have entered green up in all but the lower elevations of zone 225 (Sangres and Wet Mountain zones) which is a fairly limited area. Do not anticipate the need for fire weather highlights at this time but spotty critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Will need to monitor the position of a frontal boundary across the far eastern plains on Monday as this could be the focus for a strong to severe storm or two. NAM12 and EC back the front into portions of Prowers and Kiowa county in the afternoon with the potential for some pooling CAPE 1000+ J/kg and deep layer shear over 50 kts given low level easterly flow beneath strong southwest flow aloft. GFS and Canadian keep the front to the north and east of the area. NBM CAPE probabilities suggests NAM12 is in the 95th+ percentile for CAPE which could be overdone given the strong southwest flow aloft, but will need to monitor this as sometimes the Nam12 is better at picking up these finer details, especially if a slower upper trough solution continues to amplify out west. Convective outflows from thunderstorms across northeast CO may help drive the front southward through the SE plains Monday night. This will bring a cooler Tuesday across the region with an uptick in showers and thunderstorms and higher elevation snow, especially north of highway 50 as the upper trough moves through western and northern CO through Tuesday evening. A few inches of snow accumulation will be possible across the higher peaks of the central mountains. Jury is still out on storm coverage and strength across the plains as a more northern storm track across CO would suggest best chances would be to the north of the area. Subtle details on the position of the front reinforced by convective outflows from the night before could point to increased chances farther south, though confidence remains low at this point. Dry and breezy conditions return late week as we remain under west to southwest flow aloft to the south of the primary storm track. -KT && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites. Winds will take on a more southwesterly wind component late this afternoon before becoming light and diurnally driven by evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...HODANISH