Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
045
UXUS97 KPUB 191210
SRGPUB
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0609 MDT Sunday, May 19, 2024
This forecast is for the Air Force Academy for Sunday, May 19, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 64.2 F/17.9 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1701 ft/min (8.6 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 26335 ft MSL (18742 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 78.0 F/26.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0930 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 21017 ft MSL (13423 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 05/20....... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:42:32 / 20:09:06 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 26 min 35 sec (866 min 35 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:55:49 MDT... 70.99 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 05/19/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13677 ft MSL (6084 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15972 ft MSL (8379 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 18748 ft MSL (11154 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -6.9
K index......................... +19.5
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.9 -66.8 255 48 25 1.1 0.6 M M M M M
45000 -53.7 -64.7 255 54 28 -1.1 -0.6 M M M M M
40000 -55.4 -67.7 250 55 28 -1.0 -0.5 M M M M M
38000 -53.7 -64.7 245 51 26 3.5 1.9 M M M M M
36000 -51.6 -60.9 240 46 24 3.5 1.9 M M M M M
34000 -48.6 -55.5 230 42 21 6.5 3.5 M M M M M
32000 -44.8 -48.6 220 37 19 6.5 3.5 M M M M M
30000 -40.3 -40.5 215 35 18 8.6 4.7 27.8 82.0 1.7 M M
29000 -37.7 -35.9 215 35 18 8.6 4.7 27.3 81.1 1.4 M M
28000 -35.1 -31.2 220 35 18 8.6 4.7 27.0 80.5 1.1 M M
27000 -32.7 -26.9 220 34 18 7.1 3.9 26.3 79.4 0.6 M M
26000 -30.5 -22.9 225 32 17 7.1 3.9 25.3 77.5 -0.2 1876 9.5
25000 -28.4 -19.1 235 31 16 7.2 3.9 24.4 75.9 -1.0 1783 9.1
24000 -26.2 -15.2 240 30 16 8.9 4.9 23.7 74.6 -1.7 1686 8.6
23000 -23.6 -10.5 240 33 17 8.7 4.8 23.2 73.8 -2.1 1578 8.0
22000 -20.3 -4.5 245 36 18 8.8 4.8 22.8 73.0 -2.5 1444 7.3
21000 -18.0 -0.4 245 39 20 7.5 4.1 22.1 71.9 -3.1 1344 6.8
20000 -15.8 3.6 245 43 22 7.6 4.1 21.4 70.4 -3.9 1248 6.3
19500 -14.7 5.5 245 45 23 7.6 4.2 21.0 69.8 -4.2 1200 6.1
19000 -13.6 7.5 245 47 24 7.9 4.4 20.7 69.3 -4.6 1152 5.9
18500 -12.3 9.9 245 42 22 8.3 4.6 20.4 68.8 -4.8 1100 5.6
18000 -11.1 12.0 245 38 20 8.4 4.6 20.2 68.4 -5.1 1049 5.3
17500 -9.9 14.2 245 35 18 7.8 4.3 19.9 67.9 -5.4 998 5.1
17000 -8.7 16.3 245 33 17 7.9 4.3 19.6 67.3 -5.7 948 4.8
16500 -7.6 18.3 245 31 16 8.3 4.6 19.3 66.8 -6.0 898 4.6
16000 -6.3 20.7 250 29 15 8.6 4.7 19.1 66.5 -6.3 846 4.3
15500 -5.0 23.0 250 27 14 8.8 4.8 19.0 66.1 -6.5 793 4.0
15000 -3.7 25.3 250 25 13 9.4 5.1 18.9 66.0 -6.6 737 3.7
14500 -2.3 27.9 255 24 13 9.4 5.1 18.8 65.9 -6.8 681 3.5
14000 -0.9 30.4 255 24 12 9.2 5.1 18.7 65.7 -6.9 625 3.2
13500 0.5 32.9 260 24 12 9.0 5.0 18.7 65.6 -7.0 568 2.9
13000 2.0 35.6 260 24 12 11.5 6.3 18.7 65.7 -7.0 508 2.6
12500 3.5 38.3 260 24 12 8.4 4.6 18.7 65.7 -7.0 449 2.3
12000 4.8 40.6 260 24 12 8.7 4.8 18.6 65.4 -7.2 395 2.0
11750 5.4 41.7 260 24 12 8.6 4.7 18.5 65.3 -7.3 369 1.9
11500 6.1 43.0 260 24 12 10.1 5.5 18.4 65.2 -7.4 341 1.7
11250 6.9 44.4 260 24 12 10.7 5.9 18.5 65.3 -7.3 310 1.6
11000 7.6 45.7 260 24 12 8.6 4.7 18.5 65.3 -7.3 280 1.4
10750 8.2 46.8 260 24 12 7.4 4.1 18.4 65.0 -7.5 256 1.3
10500 8.8 47.8 260 23 12 8.4 4.6 18.2 64.8 -7.7 231 1.2
10250 9.4 48.9 255 23 12 9.8 5.4 18.2 64.7 -7.8 204 1.0
10000 10.0 50.0 255 23 12 5.5 3.0 18.1 64.5 -7.9 178 0.9
9750 10.2 50.4 255 23 12 2.2 1.2 17.5 63.6 -8.5 166 0.8
9500 10.4 50.7 250 22 11 2.9 1.6 17.0 62.6 -9.1 154 0.8
9250 10.5 50.9 250 22 11 3.7 2.0 16.5 61.7 -9.7 142 0.7
9000 10.6 51.1 245 20 11 -2.1 -1.2 15.9 60.7 -10.4 132 0.7
8750 10.0 50.0 235 19 10 -7.4 -4.0 14.7 58.4 -11.7 141 0.7
8500 9.5 49.1 225 19 10 -6.1 -3.4 13.5 56.3 -13.0 151 0.8
8250 8.9 48.0 210 19 10 -5.1 -2.8 12.3 54.1 -14.4 161 0.8
8000 8.4 47.1 210 18 9 -9.9 -5.4 11.1 52.0 -15.6 169 0.9
7750 7.2 45.0 205 14 7 -21.9 -12.0 9.1 48.5 -17.6 197 1.0
7500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/19/2024 at 0900 MDT | 05/19/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +830.2 LI... -0.9 | CAPE... +287.1 LI... -1.2
CINH... -38.2 K Index... +13.1 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +19.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.2 -67.4 255 48 25 1.8 1.0 | -54.9 -66.8 255 49 25 1.7 1.0
45000 -52.7 -62.9 255 50 26 0.6 0.3 | -52.6 -62.7 260 48 25 0.2 0.1
40000 -51.8 -61.2 255 47 24 0.5 0.3 | -52.4 -62.3 260 49 25 -0.1 -0.0
38000 -51.4 -60.5 250 43 22 0.8 0.5 | -51.3 -60.3 265 42 22 2.0 1.1
36000 -50.9 -59.6 245 39 20 0.8 0.5 | -50.1 -58.2 270 34 18 2.0 1.1
34000 -49.0 -56.2 240 36 19 5.8 3.2 | -48.0 -54.4 270 29 15 5.6 3.1
32000 -45.6 -50.1 235 34 17 5.8 3.2 | -44.6 -48.3 265 26 14 5.6 3.1
30000 -41.3 -42.3 235 31 16 8.8 4.8 | -40.5 -40.9 260 26 13 8.1 4.5
29000 -38.7 -37.7 235 29 15 8.8 4.8 | -38.1 -36.6 255 27 14 8.1 4.5
28000 -36.0 -32.8 240 28 14 8.8 4.8 | -35.7 -32.3 250 28 14 8.1 4.5
27000 -33.5 -28.3 240 26 14 7.6 4.2 | -33.2 -27.8 250 28 14 8.4 4.6
26000 -31.2 -24.2 245 25 13 7.7 4.2 | -30.7 -23.3 250 25 13 8.4 4.6
25000 -28.9 -20.0 245 24 13 7.7 4.2 | -28.2 -18.8 255 23 12 8.4 4.6
24000 -26.0 -14.8 245 25 13 7.7 4.2 | -25.7 -14.3 255 21 11 7.4 4.0
23000 -23.7 -10.7 245 28 14 7.7 4.2 | -23.0 -9.4 260 21 11 7.3 4.0
22000 -21.4 -6.5 245 31 16 7.7 4.2 | -20.8 -5.4 265 21 11 7.4 4.0
21000 -18.9 -2.0 240 33 17 9.2 5.0 | -18.6 -1.5 265 21 11 7.4 4.1
20000 -16.1 3.0 240 35 18 9.2 5.0 | -16.4 2.5 255 21 11 7.5 4.1
19500 -14.8 5.4 235 36 18 9.2 5.0 | -15.3 4.5 250 21 11 7.5 4.1
19000 -13.4 7.9 235 37 19 8.9 4.9 | -14.2 6.4 245 22 11 7.8 4.3
18500 -12.1 10.2 235 37 19 8.5 4.6 | -13.0 8.6 255 23 12 8.4 4.6
18000 -10.9 12.4 240 38 20 8.6 4.7 | -11.8 10.8 260 24 13 8.5 4.7
17500 -9.7 14.5 240 38 20 7.2 4.0 | -10.6 12.9 265 25 13 8.0 4.4
17000 -8.6 16.5 240 37 19 7.3 4.0 | -9.4 15.1 265 24 12 8.1 4.5
16500 -7.6 18.3 245 37 19 7.8 4.3 | -8.3 17.1 260 23 12 9.0 4.9
16000 -6.3 20.7 245 36 18 8.4 4.6 | -6.9 19.6 260 21 11 9.9 5.4
15500 -5.1 22.8 245 35 18 8.6 4.7 | -5.4 22.3 260 20 10 9.9 5.4
15000 -3.8 25.2 245 33 17 9.4 5.2 | -3.9 25.0 260 19 10 9.6 5.3
14500 -2.4 27.7 240 30 15 9.4 5.1 | -2.5 27.5 260 19 10 9.6 5.3
14000 -1.0 30.2 240 27 14 9.1 5.0 | -1.0 30.2 260 18 9 9.8 5.4
13500 0.3 32.5 240 25 13 9.1 5.0 | 0.4 32.7 260 18 9 9.6 5.3
13000 1.7 35.1 245 22 11 10.0 5.5 | 2.0 35.6 260 18 9 11.5 6.3
12500 2.9 37.2 250 21 11 6.3 3.5 | 3.5 38.3 260 17 9 8.5 4.7
12000 4.0 39.2 255 22 11 8.9 4.9 | 4.8 40.6 260 17 9 9.8 5.4
11750 4.8 40.6 260 22 11 10.0 5.5 | 5.6 42.1 260 17 9 10.4 5.7
11500 5.5 41.9 260 22 11 9.1 5.0 | 6.4 43.5 260 17 9 9.9 5.5
11250 6.1 43.0 265 22 11 8.7 4.8 | 7.1 44.8 260 16 8 9.9 5.4
11000 6.8 44.2 265 22 11 8.7 4.8 | 7.8 46.0 260 16 8 9.3 5.1
10750 7.4 45.3 265 22 11 8.4 4.6 | 8.5 47.3 260 16 8 8.6 4.7
10500 8.1 46.6 265 21 11 9.0 4.9 | 9.1 48.4 260 16 8 9.4 5.2
10250 8.8 47.8 265 21 11 10.4 5.7 | 9.9 49.8 260 16 8 11.1 6.1
10000 9.6 49.3 265 20 10 9.9 5.4 | 10.8 51.4 260 16 8 10.4 5.7
9750 10.2 50.4 265 20 10 8.8 4.8 | 11.5 52.7 260 15 8 9.6 5.3
9500 10.9 51.6 265 19 10 9.2 5.1 | 12.2 54.0 255 15 8 9.3 5.1
9250 11.6 52.9 260 19 10 8.7 4.8 | 12.9 55.2 255 15 8 11.2 6.1
9000 12.1 53.8 260 18 9 6.6 3.6 | 13.8 56.8 255 15 7 11.4 6.3
8750 12.5 54.5 255 18 9 5.5 3.0 | 14.6 58.3 255 14 7 9.8 5.4
8500 12.8 55.0 255 18 9 5.9 3.2 | 15.3 59.5 255 14 7 9.8 5.4
8250 13.2 55.8 250 18 9 5.8 3.2 | 16.1 61.0 255 14 7 11.4 6.2
8000 13.6 56.5 245 15 8 9.4 5.1 | 17.2 63.0 255 13 7 18.3 10.0
7750 15.2 59.4 230 9 5 5.2 2.9 | 18.7 65.7 255 12 6 24.7 13.5
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
05/19/2024 at 1500 MDT | 05/19/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +308.7 LI... -1.5 | CAPE... +180.0 LI... -0.8
CINH... -0.2 K Index... +23.7 | CINH... -2.7 K Index... +23.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -55.3 -67.5 255 53 27 1.2 0.7 | -56.2 -69.2 260 51 26 1.6 0.9
45000 -53.7 -64.7 260 52 27 0.2 0.1 | -54.1 -65.4 260 51 26 0.1 0.1
40000 -53.5 -64.3 265 54 28 -0.2 -0.1 | -54.0 -65.2 270 60 31 -0.0 -0.0
38000 -52.0 -61.6 270 49 25 2.7 1.5 | -52.4 -62.3 265 55 28 2.9 1.6
36000 -50.4 -58.7 275 44 23 2.7 1.5 | -50.7 -59.3 265 49 25 2.9 1.6
34000 -47.6 -53.7 280 40 21 6.7 3.7 | -47.6 -53.7 270 44 23 7.2 3.9
32000 -43.5 -46.3 285 37 19 6.7 3.7 | -43.3 -45.9 270 41 21 7.2 4.0
30000 -39.2 -38.6 285 34 17 8.0 4.4 | -38.7 -37.7 275 38 20 8.2 4.5
29000 -36.8 -34.2 280 32 16 8.0 4.4 | -36.2 -33.2 270 38 20 8.2 4.5
28000 -34.4 -29.9 280 30 15 8.0 4.4 | -33.8 -28.8 270 38 19 8.2 4.5
27000 -32.0 -25.6 280 28 14 7.2 3.9 | -31.4 -24.5 270 35 18 7.5 4.1
26000 -29.9 -21.8 280 26 13 7.2 4.0 | -29.1 -20.4 265 30 15 7.6 4.1
25000 -27.7 -17.9 280 24 12 7.3 4.0 | -26.9 -16.4 260 25 13 7.6 4.2
24000 -25.0 -13.0 280 22 11 7.3 4.0 | -24.1 -11.4 260 21 11 7.0 3.8
23000 -22.8 -9.0 275 21 11 7.3 4.0 | -22.1 -7.8 260 20 10 7.0 3.8
22000 -20.6 -5.1 275 20 10 7.3 4.0 | -20.0 -4.0 265 19 10 7.0 3.8
21000 -18.4 -1.1 275 19 10 8.0 4.4 | -17.7 0.1 265 19 10 8.2 4.5
20000 -16.0 3.2 270 19 10 8.1 4.4 | -15.3 4.5 265 17 9 8.3 4.5
19500 -14.8 5.4 270 19 10 8.2 4.5 | -14.1 6.6 265 17 9 8.3 4.6
19000 -13.6 7.5 265 19 10 8.6 4.7 | -12.9 8.8 265 16 8 8.7 4.8
18500 -12.3 9.9 265 18 10 9.4 5.2 | -11.5 11.3 265 16 8 9.3 5.1
18000 -10.9 12.4 265 18 9 9.4 5.2 | -10.2 13.6 270 16 8 9.4 5.1
17500 -9.5 14.9 265 18 9 9.5 5.2 | -8.8 16.2 270 16 8 9.4 5.2
17000 -8.1 17.4 265 17 9 9.5 5.2 | -7.4 18.7 270 15 8 9.4 5.2
16500 -6.8 19.8 265 16 8 9.6 5.3 | -6.0 21.2 270 15 8 9.5 5.2
16000 -5.3 22.5 265 15 8 9.7 5.3 | -4.6 23.7 270 15 8 9.5 5.2
15500 -3.8 25.2 265 15 8 9.7 5.3 | -3.2 26.2 270 15 7 9.5 5.2
15000 -2.4 27.7 265 15 8 9.8 5.4 | -1.7 28.9 270 14 7 10.0 5.5
14500 -0.9 30.4 265 14 7 9.8 5.4 | -0.2 31.6 270 14 7 10.0 5.5
14000 0.5 32.9 260 14 7 9.8 5.4 | 1.3 34.3 270 14 7 9.7 5.3
13500 2.0 35.6 260 14 7 9.6 5.3 | 2.7 36.9 270 14 7 9.3 5.1
13000 3.6 38.5 260 13 7 11.7 6.4 | 4.4 39.9 270 13 7 12.6 6.9
12500 5.1 41.2 260 13 7 8.8 4.8 | 5.9 42.6 270 13 7 8.3 4.6
12000 6.5 43.7 260 12 6 9.4 5.2 | 7.2 45.0 270 13 7 8.8 4.8
11750 7.2 45.0 255 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 7.8 46.0 270 13 6 9.3 5.1
11500 7.9 46.2 255 12 6 9.7 5.3 | 8.6 47.5 270 12 6 9.9 5.4
11250 8.7 47.7 255 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 9.3 48.7 270 12 6 10.2 5.6
11000 9.4 48.9 255 12 6 9.5 5.2 | 10.1 50.2 270 12 6 9.5 5.2
10750 10.1 50.2 255 12 6 9.1 5.0 | 10.7 51.3 270 12 6 8.8 4.8
10500 10.8 51.4 255 11 6 9.5 5.2 | 11.4 52.5 270 11 6 9.5 5.2
10250 11.5 52.7 255 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 12.2 54.0 270 11 6 10.6 5.8
10000 12.3 54.1 255 11 6 10.0 5.5 | 13.0 55.4 270 11 6 10.2 5.6
9750 13.0 55.4 250 11 6 10.1 5.5 | 13.7 56.7 270 11 6 9.6 5.3
9500 13.8 56.8 250 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 14.4 57.9 265 10 5 9.6 5.3
9250 14.5 58.1 250 11 5 10.5 5.8 | 15.1 59.2 265 10 5 10.1 5.5
9000 15.3 59.5 250 10 5 10.6 5.8 | 15.9 60.6 265 10 5 10.2 5.6
8750 16.1 61.0 250 10 5 10.2 5.6 | 16.7 62.1 265 10 5 9.9 5.4
8500 16.8 62.2 250 10 5 9.9 5.4 | 17.4 63.3 265 9 5 9.5 5.2
8250 17.6 63.7 250 10 5 11.7 6.4 | 18.1 64.6 265 9 5 11.3 6.2
8000 18.7 65.7 245 9 5 17.7 9.7 | 19.1 66.4 265 9 5 13.8 7.6
7750 20.2 68.4 245 9 5 22.2 12.2 | 20.0 68.0 260 8 4 12.5 6.8
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at
North Latitude: 38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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