Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
380
UXUS97 KPUB 031208
SRGPUB
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0608 MDT Monday, June 3, 2024
This forecast is for the Air Force Academy for Monday, June 3, 2024:
If the trigger temperature of 66.8 F/19.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1434 ft/min (7.3 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 24637 ft MSL (17019 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 85.0 F/29.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0845 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1300 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 22483 ft MSL (14865 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 06/04...... Excellent
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:34:33 / 20:20:38 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 46 min 5 sec (886 min 5 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:57:36 MDT... 73.45 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 06/03/2024 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14280 ft MSL (6662 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15918 ft MSL (8300 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19520 ft MSL (11902 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -5.8
K index......................... +18.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -56.1 -69.0 270 25 13 0.7 0.4 M M M M M
45000 -55.8 -68.4 290 27 14 -2.4 -1.3 M M M M M
40000 -59.3 -74.7 325 27 14 -1.4 -0.8 M M M M M
38000 -55.2 -67.4 330 27 14 7.6 4.2 M M M M M
36000 -50.6 -59.1 330 27 14 7.6 4.2 M M M M M
34000 -45.1 -49.2 325 27 14 8.6 4.7 M M M M M
32000 -39.9 -39.8 320 28 14 8.6 4.7 M M M M M
30000 -34.9 -30.8 310 29 15 8.4 4.6 33.6 92.4 3.2 M M
29000 -32.4 -26.3 310 30 16 8.4 4.6 33.0 91.5 2.8 M M
28000 -29.8 -21.6 305 32 16 8.4 4.6 32.6 90.8 2.5 M M
27000 -27.6 -17.7 300 31 16 7.1 3.9 31.8 89.3 1.9 M M
26000 -25.5 -13.9 300 29 15 7.1 3.9 30.8 87.4 1.1 M M
25000 -23.4 -10.1 295 27 14 7.1 3.9 29.9 85.8 0.3 M M
24000 -21.5 -6.7 295 25 13 5.2 2.8 28.7 83.7 -0.7 1587 8.1
23000 -19.9 -3.8 290 23 12 5.3 2.9 27.0 80.7 -2.1 1511 7.7
22000 -18.4 -1.1 285 21 11 5.4 3.0 25.5 77.9 -3.5 1435 7.3
21000 -15.9 3.4 285 20 10 7.8 4.3 24.2 75.6 -4.7 1324 6.7
20000 -13.6 7.5 290 19 10 7.8 4.3 23.5 74.3 -5.4 1225 6.2
19500 -12.4 9.7 290 19 10 7.8 4.3 23.2 73.8 -5.7 1176 6.0
19000 -11.3 11.7 295 19 10 7.6 4.2 22.9 73.3 -6.0 1127 5.7
18500 -10.2 13.6 300 20 10 7.5 4.1 22.5 72.6 -6.5 1080 5.5
18000 -9.1 15.6 305 21 11 7.5 4.1 22.2 71.9 -6.9 1032 5.2
17500 -8.0 17.6 310 22 11 8.2 4.5 21.9 71.3 -7.2 983 5.0
17000 -6.8 19.8 310 21 11 8.2 4.5 21.6 70.8 -7.5 933 4.7
16500 -5.6 21.9 310 21 11 8.2 4.5 21.3 70.4 -7.8 882 4.5
16000 -4.4 24.1 305 21 11 8.2 4.5 21.1 69.9 -8.1 831 4.2
15500 -3.2 26.2 300 21 11 8.4 4.6 20.8 69.5 -8.4 780 4.0
15000 -1.9 28.6 300 20 10 8.9 4.9 20.7 69.2 -8.7 727 3.7
14500 -0.6 30.9 295 19 10 8.9 4.9 20.5 69.0 -8.9 673 3.4
14000 0.8 33.4 290 18 9 9.4 5.2 20.4 68.8 -9.0 618 3.1
13500 2.2 36.0 285 17 9 9.2 5.1 20.4 68.7 -9.1 561 2.9
13000 3.7 38.7 280 15 8 10.8 5.9 20.4 68.8 -9.1 501 2.5
12500 5.1 41.2 275 13 7 8.9 4.9 20.4 68.7 -9.2 444 2.3
12000 6.4 43.5 265 11 6 7.9 4.3 20.3 68.5 -9.4 391 2.0
11750 7.0 44.6 260 10 5 7.7 4.2 20.1 68.2 -9.6 366 1.9
11500 7.5 45.5 250 9 5 8.6 4.7 20.0 67.9 -9.8 341 1.7
11250 8.2 46.8 245 9 5 8.7 4.8 19.9 67.8 -9.9 315 1.6
11000 8.7 47.7 235 9 4 6.8 3.7 19.7 67.5 -10.1 291 1.5
10750 9.2 48.6 225 9 4 5.6 3.1 19.5 67.0 -10.4 271 1.4
10500 9.6 49.3 215 9 5 6.6 3.6 19.2 66.5 -10.8 251 1.3
10250 10.1 50.2 210 10 5 8.1 4.5 19.0 66.2 -11.0 229 1.2
10000 10.6 51.1 200 10 5 6.6 3.6 18.8 65.9 -11.2 206 1.0
9750 11.0 51.8 195 11 6 5.1 2.8 18.5 65.3 -11.6 188 1.0
9500 11.3 52.3 190 12 6 5.4 3.0 18.2 64.7 -12.0 169 0.9
9250 11.7 53.1 190 13 7 5.7 3.1 17.8 64.1 -12.4 151 0.8
9000 12.1 53.8 185 14 7 5.9 3.2 17.6 63.6 -12.8 131 0.7
8750 12.5 54.5 185 14 7 5.4 3.0 17.2 63.0 -13.1 112 0.6
8500 12.9 55.2 185 14 7 6.1 3.4 16.9 62.5 -13.5 92 0.5
8250 13.3 55.9 185 14 7 3.9 2.1 16.6 61.9 -13.9 73 0.4
8000 13.2 55.8 200 12 6 -11.4 -6.2 15.7 60.3 -14.8 70 0.4
7750 11.6 52.9 210 9 5 -29.6 -16.2 13.4 56.1 -17.1 109 0.6
7500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
06/03/2024 at 0900 MDT | 06/03/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +116.9 LI... -1.4 | CAPE... +174.8 LI... -1.9
CINH... -32.5 K Index... +21.9 | CINH... -0.5 K Index... +25.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -57.1 -70.8 260 24 12 0.6 0.3 | -56.5 -69.7 260 22 11 1.2 0.6
45000 -56.9 -70.4 280 21 11 -2.0 -1.1 | -55.8 -68.4 290 21 11 -2.5 -1.4
40000 -60.0 -76.0 315 22 11 0.7 0.4 | -59.6 -75.3 340 40 20 1.1 0.6
38000 -55.4 -67.7 320 22 11 8.1 4.5 | -54.6 -66.3 335 35 18 8.6 4.7
36000 -50.5 -58.9 330 22 11 8.1 4.5 | -48.8 -55.8 330 30 16 8.6 4.7
34000 -44.7 -48.5 325 22 11 8.8 4.8 | -43.7 -46.7 320 27 14 8.5 4.7
32000 -39.4 -38.9 320 22 11 8.9 4.9 | -38.6 -37.5 315 26 13 8.5 4.7
30000 -34.4 -29.9 310 23 12 8.3 4.6 | -33.8 -28.8 310 24 12 7.7 4.3
29000 -31.9 -25.4 305 24 12 8.3 4.6 | -31.5 -24.7 305 23 12 7.8 4.3
28000 -29.4 -20.9 300 25 13 8.4 4.6 | -29.1 -20.4 305 22 12 7.9 4.3
27000 -27.0 -16.6 300 25 13 8.0 4.4 | -27.0 -16.6 300 21 11 7.0 3.9
26000 -24.6 -12.3 300 23 12 8.0 4.4 | -24.9 -12.8 300 19 10 7.1 3.9
25000 -22.2 -8.0 295 22 11 8.0 4.4 | -22.8 -9.0 295 18 9 7.0 3.9
24000 -20.3 -4.5 295 21 11 4.5 2.5 | -20.9 -5.6 290 18 9 5.7 3.1
23000 -18.9 -2.0 295 20 11 4.6 2.5 | -19.2 -2.6 290 19 10 5.7 3.1
22000 -17.6 0.3 290 20 10 4.7 2.6 | -17.5 0.5 285 20 10 5.8 3.2
21000 -16.0 3.2 290 20 10 6.4 3.5 | -15.2 4.6 280 22 11 7.0 3.8
20000 -13.6 7.5 290 21 11 6.5 3.6 | -13.1 8.4 275 23 12 7.0 3.8
19500 -12.7 9.1 290 21 11 6.5 3.6 | -12.1 10.2 275 24 12 7.0 3.8
19000 -11.7 10.9 290 21 11 8.4 4.6 | -11.0 12.2 275 24 13 7.8 4.3
18500 -10.4 13.3 290 20 11 9.1 5.0 | -9.9 14.2 275 24 12 8.0 4.4
18000 -9.0 15.8 290 20 10 9.1 5.0 | -8.7 16.3 275 24 12 8.1 4.5
17500 -7.7 18.1 290 20 10 8.4 4.6 | -7.4 18.7 270 23 12 9.1 5.0
17000 -6.5 20.3 290 20 10 8.4 4.6 | -6.1 21.0 270 21 11 9.0 5.0
16500 -5.3 22.5 290 20 10 8.3 4.6 | -4.8 23.4 270 19 10 9.2 5.0
16000 -4.1 24.6 290 19 10 8.3 4.6 | -3.5 25.7 270 17 9 9.2 5.1
15500 -2.9 26.8 295 19 10 8.4 4.6 | -2.1 28.2 265 14 7 9.4 5.2
15000 -1.6 29.1 295 18 9 8.5 4.7 | -0.7 30.7 265 13 7 9.8 5.3
14500 -0.4 31.3 295 18 9 8.5 4.7 | 0.8 33.4 265 12 6 9.8 5.4
14000 1.0 33.8 290 17 9 9.6 5.2 | 2.2 36.0 260 11 6 9.7 5.3
13500 2.4 36.3 290 17 9 9.3 5.1 | 3.7 38.7 260 10 5 9.3 5.1
13000 4.0 39.2 285 17 9 10.8 5.9 | 5.3 41.5 255 10 5 11.7 6.4
12500 5.4 41.7 280 15 8 9.1 5.0 | 6.7 44.1 255 9 5 8.8 4.8
12000 6.8 44.2 275 14 7 8.9 4.9 | 8.0 46.4 255 8 4 8.4 4.6
11750 7.4 45.3 275 14 7 9.0 4.9 | 8.7 47.7 250 8 4 9.2 5.0
11500 8.1 46.6 270 13 7 9.6 5.3 | 9.4 48.9 250 8 4 10.9 6.0
11250 8.9 48.0 270 13 7 9.5 5.2 | 10.3 50.5 250 8 4 10.8 5.9
11000 9.6 49.3 265 12 6 8.6 4.7 | 11.0 51.8 250 7 4 9.3 5.1
10750 10.2 50.4 260 12 6 7.9 4.4 | 11.7 53.1 245 7 4 8.2 4.5
10500 10.8 51.4 255 12 6 9.2 5.0 | 12.3 54.1 245 7 4 10.0 5.5
10250 11.6 52.9 255 12 6 10.6 5.8 | 13.1 55.6 245 7 3 12.0 6.6
10000 12.3 54.1 250 12 6 8.5 4.7 | 14.0 57.2 245 7 3 10.1 5.6
9750 12.8 55.0 250 12 6 7.2 4.0 | 14.7 58.5 240 6 3 9.1 5.0
9500 13.4 56.1 250 12 6 7.4 4.1 | 15.4 59.7 240 6 3 8.8 4.8
9250 13.9 57.0 245 12 6 8.0 4.4 | 16.1 61.0 240 6 3 11.1 6.1
9000 14.5 58.1 245 12 6 7.0 3.8 | 17.0 62.6 235 6 3 11.5 6.3
8750 14.9 58.8 240 11 6 5.9 3.2 | 17.7 63.9 235 6 3 9.5 5.2
8500 15.3 59.5 240 10 5 5.5 3.0 | 18.4 65.1 235 5 3 9.3 5.1
8250 15.7 60.3 235 10 5 8.5 4.7 | 19.2 66.6 230 5 3 12.0 6.6
8000 16.6 61.9 235 9 4 14.9 8.2 | 20.3 68.5 230 5 3 19.6 10.8
7750 17.7 63.9 230 7 4 16.2 8.9 | 21.9 71.4 225 5 2 23.4 12.8
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
06/03/2024 at 1500 MDT | 06/03/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +114.5 LI... -0.9 | CAPE... +31.1 LI... -0.3
CINH... -26.1 K Index... +27.4 | CINH... -6.1 K Index... +28.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -58.8 -73.8 265 25 13 -0.5 -0.3 | -59.6 -75.3 265 24 12 -1.2 -0.7
45000 -59.2 -74.6 290 26 13 0.5 0.3 | -60.6 -77.1 285 26 13 1.4 0.8
40000 -58.4 -73.1 310 37 19 4.8 2.6 | -58.4 -73.1 305 45 23 5.2 2.8
38000 -53.5 -64.3 310 34 18 8.3 4.5 | -53.5 -64.3 305 38 19 8.3 4.5
36000 -48.5 -55.3 310 31 16 8.3 4.5 | -47.9 -54.2 300 29 15 8.3 4.5
34000 -42.8 -45.0 305 29 15 8.4 4.6 | -42.8 -45.0 300 27 14 8.7 4.8
32000 -37.8 -36.0 295 28 15 8.4 4.6 | -37.5 -35.5 295 26 13 8.7 4.8
30000 -32.8 -27.0 295 27 14 8.3 4.6 | -32.7 -26.9 295 23 12 7.8 4.3
29000 -30.3 -22.5 295 27 14 8.3 4.6 | -30.4 -22.7 290 22 11 7.9 4.3
28000 -27.8 -18.0 295 26 13 8.6 4.7 | -28.0 -18.4 285 20 10 7.9 4.3
27000 -25.9 -14.6 290 25 13 6.0 3.3 | -25.8 -14.4 280 20 10 7.5 4.1
26000 -24.1 -11.4 290 25 13 6.0 3.3 | -23.6 -10.5 275 20 10 7.5 4.1
25000 -22.3 -8.1 285 24 12 6.1 3.3 | -21.4 -6.5 265 20 11 7.5 4.1
24000 -20.5 -4.9 285 24 12 6.2 3.4 | -19.2 -2.6 265 22 11 7.2 4.0
23000 -18.7 -1.7 285 24 12 6.3 3.4 | -16.6 2.1 260 25 13 7.3 4.0
22000 -16.9 1.6 285 24 13 6.3 3.5 | -14.4 6.1 260 27 14 7.3 4.0
21000 -14.7 5.5 280 24 12 8.5 4.7 | -12.3 9.9 260 27 14 7.3 4.0
20000 -11.6 11.1 275 24 12 8.7 4.8 | -10.2 13.6 265 27 14 7.3 4.0
19500 -10.3 13.5 275 24 12 8.7 4.8 | -9.1 15.6 265 27 14 7.4 4.0
19000 -9.1 15.6 275 23 12 8.0 4.4 | -8.1 17.4 265 27 14 7.0 3.8
18500 -7.9 17.8 275 21 11 7.8 4.3 | -7.1 19.2 265 26 13 6.7 3.7
18000 -6.8 19.8 270 19 10 7.8 4.3 | -6.2 20.8 265 25 13 6.7 3.7
17500 -5.7 21.7 270 18 9 7.8 4.3 | -5.2 22.6 265 24 12 6.3 3.5
17000 -4.5 23.9 270 17 9 7.8 4.3 | -4.3 24.3 265 22 11 6.4 3.5
16500 -3.3 26.1 270 16 8 9.4 5.2 | -3.4 25.9 265 21 11 6.4 3.5
16000 -1.8 28.8 270 15 8 9.8 5.4 | -2.5 27.5 265 20 10 6.5 3.6
15500 -0.4 31.3 265 14 7 9.7 5.3 | -1.5 29.3 265 19 10 6.7 3.7
15000 1.1 34.0 265 13 7 9.6 5.3 | -0.4 31.3 265 17 9 8.0 4.4
14500 2.5 36.5 260 12 6 9.7 5.3 | 0.7 33.3 260 14 7 7.7 4.2
14000 3.9 39.0 255 11 6 9.2 5.0 | 2.0 35.6 260 12 6 9.7 5.3
13500 5.3 41.5 250 11 5 9.0 4.9 | 3.4 38.1 260 11 6 9.1 5.0
13000 6.8 44.2 240 10 5 10.0 5.5 | 5.1 41.2 260 10 5 12.0 6.6
12500 8.1 46.6 230 10 5 8.0 4.4 | 6.5 43.7 260 9 5 8.2 4.5
12000 9.3 48.7 220 9 5 9.1 5.0 | 7.7 45.9 260 8 4 9.4 5.2
11750 10.0 50.0 215 10 5 9.2 5.0 | 8.5 47.3 255 8 4 10.1 5.6
11500 10.6 51.1 210 10 5 8.6 4.7 | 9.2 48.6 255 8 4 9.5 5.2
11250 11.3 52.3 205 10 5 8.6 4.7 | 9.9 49.8 255 7 4 9.5 5.2
11000 11.9 53.4 195 10 5 8.3 4.6 | 10.6 51.1 255 7 3 9.5 5.2
10750 12.5 54.5 195 11 6 7.9 4.4 | 11.4 52.5 255 6 3 9.4 5.2
10500 13.1 55.6 190 11 6 8.8 4.8 | 12.1 53.8 255 6 3 9.6 5.3
10250 13.8 56.8 185 12 6 10.0 5.5 | 12.8 55.0 255 6 3 9.8 5.4
10000 14.6 58.3 180 12 6 9.3 5.1 | 13.5 56.3 255 5 3 9.9 5.4
9750 15.2 59.4 180 12 6 8.8 4.8 | 14.3 57.7 255 5 3 10.0 5.5
9500 15.9 60.6 180 13 7 8.4 4.6 | 15.0 59.0 255 5 2 10.0 5.5
9250 16.5 61.7 175 13 7 10.3 5.6 | 15.8 60.4 255 4 2 10.1 5.5
9000 17.4 63.3 175 13 7 10.6 5.8 | 16.5 61.7 255 4 2 10.1 5.6
8750 18.1 64.6 175 13 7 9.0 4.9 | 18.0 64.4 260 3 2 10.4 5.7
8500 18.8 65.8 175 13 7 9.2 5.0 | 18.8 65.8 260 3 1 8.5 4.6
8250 19.4 66.9 170 14 7 10.0 5.5 | 19.3 66.7 260 2 1 6.7 3.7
8000 20.3 68.5 170 13 7 13.1 7.2 | 19.8 67.6 275 1 1 9.5 5.2
7750 21.3 70.3 170 12 6 15.5 8.5 | 20.4 68.7 305 1 1 2.8 1.5
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at
North Latitude: 38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613