991
FXUS62 KRAH 272000
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm and humid airmass will continue unsettled
conditions through tonight. A series of cold fronts will move
through central NC through mid week with high pressure building
overhead for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Monday...

Thick cirrus associated with several MCVs currently traversing
central NC has largely limited showers and thunderstorms thus far
this afternoon. In wake of the passing MCVs, skies have cleared
across our western areas. These locations have largely remained
stable from cloud cover and this morning`s cold pool, but we are
starting to see some cu develop in this vicinity (although dew
points have mixed out into the mid 60s here). It may be challenging
for any development over these locations, but can`t rule out a few
isolated showers/storms through the next few hours.

For those along and east of US-1, SBCAPE has soared to greater than
3500 J/kg. Kinematics in this vicinity continue to support the
potential for strong to severe storms over the next several hours as
forcing associated with the MCVs continue eastward. Model-derived
STP values and hodographs suggest some enhanced rotation potential
east of I-95 the next few hours. Additionally, sfc winds have backed
some over and just east of Wilson/Edgecombe/Halifax counties. As
such, those in the Coastal Plain may see a relatively enhanced
tornado potential over the next few hours.  Otherwise, given the
potential for explosive updrafts both large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be possible with any stronger storms.

The storm threat should push northeast of us by ~22Z. Some residual
showers/isolated shallow storms may be possible across the western
Piedmont later this afternoon, but overall the severe threat should
wane with loss of heating.

Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Monday...

A longwave trough will be over the Eastern US on Tuesday and Tuesday
night, as any shortwave energy stays well to our north. At the
surface, a cold front that pushed through central NC on Monday night
and Tuesday morning will linger over eastern NC through the day. So
a stray shower or storm can`t be entirely ruled out in the far SE
(mainly Sampson County) in the afternoon, so have slight chance POPs
there, but otherwise it will be dry and mostly sunny across the
region. NW flow behind the cold front will bring much lower dew
points in the 50s. However, it will take a while for the cooler air
to get here, so expect another warmer-than-normal day with highs in
the mid-to-upper-80s, maybe touching 90 in the far south. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the upper-50s to mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

The extended period looks to be largely dry through at least
Saturday. Mid/upper troughing will linger over the Eastern Seaboard
from Wednesday through Friday, with a series of embedded shortwaves
moving within it. A particularly vigorous one looks to move SE
across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday night and Friday. However, these
systems look moisture starved. The 12z GFS and CMC do spit out light
precipitation in the Coastal Plain on Thursday night/early Friday,
so added slight chance POPs there, but no significant rain is
expected. Cool surface high pressure building down from the Great
Lakes will bring a downward trend in temperatures through the
workweek, with near-normal highs on Wednesday dropping to 5-10
degrees below normal (mid-to-upper-70s) by Friday. Lows will drop
into the upper-40s to lower-50s on Saturday morning. The surface
high and associated mid/upper ridging will build over central NC on
Saturday, bringing another dry day with highs increasing back to
upper-70s to lower-80s. A weak shortwave may move across the area on
Sunday/Monday, and the ECMWF and a minority of its ensembles have
some precipitation. So carry slight chance POPs on these days, but
the GFS and CMC are dry and confidence in any significant rain is
low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 132 PM Monday...

Outside of temporary restrictions from scattered afternoon
convection, VFR conditions should largely prevail through the 24 hr
TAF period.  There is considerable uncertainty wrt to convection the
rest of today. Observational and model trends suggest the best
chance for storms would be at the eastern TAF sites the next several
hours. However, confidence in any storms impacting even these
airports is quite low.

Otherwise, expect layered VFR clouds to persist through much of the
rest of the period, with perhaps some scattered stratus across the
east early Tuesday morning.  Gusty sswly sfc flow will subside
around sunset tonight, with light winds expected overnight.

Outlook: VFR conditions should persists through the extended as dry
high pressure wedges in.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Swiggett
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Luchetti