292
FXUS62 KRAH 240012
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
810 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A surface trough will settle over our region tonight and Friday. The
surface trough will linger over the weekend keeping unsettled and
warm conditions over central NC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 810 PM Thursday...

A series of convectively enhanced disturbances will traverse the
region tonight and again on Friday.

The first disturbance and associated convection tracked mainly
across northern portions of the Piedmont earlier this evening and in
the process of exiting the northern coastal plain counties. Areas
along and north of the 64 corridor have either been rain or out-flow
cooled from the earlier convection. Thus, the threat for severe
storms across the northern half of the forecast area looks to be
greatly diminished.

Trailing this lead vort, a secondary impulse is supporting an area
of showers and storms across the western Piedmont. The southern
portions of the Piedmont/south of 64, has yet to be worked over. So
could still a severe or two over the next hour or two before the BL
starts to cool from loss of heating.

Finally, a tertiary disturbance, the strongest of the bunch, is
starting to move into the southern Appalachians. The vort
disturbance is progged to cross the area between 06 to 15z Friday.
Further nocturnal stabilization should preclude any severe storms,
but will continue to support scattered to numerous showers, with
some embedded thunder overnight.

Lows tonight generally 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

Confidence for Friday continues to be low with inconsistency for
timing and coverage. An upper level shortwave is expected to move
across the region bringing plenty of moisture through out the
atmosphere with PW values around 1.60 inches, which is slightly
above the daily average. Marginal to moderate CAPE across much of
the region especially in the southern half of the CWA mixed with
temps in the mid/upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to low
70s could result in a few isolated to scattered storms developing
across the region in the afternoon and early evening. It is not
expected to be a complete wash out across the region but some storms
could become strong and slow moving. For now, keeping chance pops
this afternoon and continuing overnight for showers and isolated
storms, but again, confidence of this is low. Overall, some breaks
in the clouds during the first half of the day, increased cloud
coverage and chance of storms second half of the day and continuing
into overnight. High will range from mid 80s in the north to upper
80s in the south. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of  215 PM Thursday...

A wet pattern continues through much of the long term as daily
chances for showers and storms are expected Saturday through
Wednesday. Best chance for showers and storms will be Saturday as a
trough slowly moves across the region. SPC has the entire FA in a
Marginal threat (level 1/5) for severe storms to develop.  As the
tough moves east, most of Sunday is expected to be dry as the
surface frontal boundary resides to the north over the OH valley. A
few showers could begin to develop in the late afternoon Sunday
(especially in the NW Piedmont) ahead of the frontal boundary moving
across the MS valley. By Monday, expect an upward trend in PoPs
through at least Tuesday as the front is expected to move across the
state. Timing difference between the long range models vary from
early Tuesday to late Tuesday. The timing is expected to affect
strength and coverage of showers and storms as well as temperatures.
As the front moves offshore, Wednesday and Thursday is expect to be
dry as high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic region.

Temperatures in the long term start off above average with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s. As the front sweeps through the region
temperatures will flip and become a few degrees below average with
highs in the low to mid 80s mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 742 PM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: Forecast is tricky and somewhat low confidence
over the next 24 hours. The two primary concerns are: 1. the
possibility for continued convection and 2. the potential fog/low
stratus development where rain has occurred today. Some guidance has
multiple rounds of convection moving through central NC tonight into
the day Fri, however there is uncertainty whether that will persist
with loss of heating and some stabilization from convection earlier
this aft/eve. Outflow from the storms has met up with a lingering
surface boundary roughly W-E across the area, south of KRDU and
KRWI. Highest confidence of showers/storms tonight along and south
of that boundary. As for fog/low stratus tonight, there is a good
signal in the guidance for development where convection has
occurred, so that would be every site aside from KFAY as of 00Z.
However, showers/storms are expected to move through KFAY in the
coming hours, so there is a chance there as well. Have tried to add
all that to the TAF, however timing and extent may be a little off.

A return to VFR conditions is expected through the morn/aft from
west to east, but again that depends on development of sub-VFR
conditions in the first place. Otherwise, winds should generally be
calm to light and variable, with stronger winds/gusts with storms
where they occur.

Looking ahead: Primarily diurnally driven showers/storms will be
possible at all terminals through Tue, with the best chances Fri,
Sat, and Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC