Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
608 FXUS65 KREV 280817 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 117 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Expect warm and generally dry conditions to continue this week. We see a pause in the warming trend today and Wednesday as cooler west- northwest flow prevails over the region. There is another chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms for the Sierra, northeast California and far western Nevada this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Some isolated showers and thunderstorms developed yesterday afternoon and evening generally along a line from the Eastern Sierra to the Pine Nut Mountains in far western Nevada, in addition to some in far northern Lassen county. Similar chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with a 15-20% chance to build up along the Sierra crest and move eastward into western Nevada through the evening as afternoon westerly winds kick in. The only difference today is that these afternoon westerlies are expected to be much stronger this afternoon with surface gusts 25-30 mph areawide, so storms may track as far east as Mineral and Churchill counties. An upper-level trough moves through the region today, which is the main driver behind those enhanced westerly winds this afternoon. These gusty winds will keep temperatures moderated a bit today, with highs perhaps a couple degrees cooler than those observed yesterday. Further cooling is expected into Wednesday due to cooler northwesterly flow behind the trough passage. This will be the coolest day for pretty much the entire foreseeable future, yet, highs will still run near to a few degrees above average areawide. Ensemble clusters suggest a gradual warm-up will resume Thursday onward as more zonal flow prevails through the weekend and into early next week. Guidance continues to hint at the chance to reach the first 90 degrees of the year this weekend for lowest valleys in far western Nevada. Chances have increased from previous guidance, as Reno now has a 50% chance to reach 90 degrees each afternoon Friday through Sunday. Even if we don`t reach 90 this weekend, the long term pattern looks favorable to make up for it... with a near 80% chance for an anomalous ridge to develop over the western US by mid next week. Whitlam && .AVIATION... Overall, VFR conditions prevail through today. Enhanced WSW breezes prevail this afternoon with gusts 20-30 kts for all regional terminals. There is a 15-20% chance for KHTH-KMMH to see an isolated shower or thunderstorm between 23-03z. For any cells that develop over airfields, the main threat will be brief heavy rainfall and gusty, erratic outflow winds to 35 kts. Whitlam && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$