Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
502 FXUS65 KREV 291949 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1249 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and dry weather will prevail through the upcoming weekend with typical afternoon breezes. There is a potential for more significant warming next week when highs could easily exceed 90 degrees across western NV valleys and reach 80 degrees in Sierra communities. If you plan to be near area creeks and streams, exercise caution as they will be moving fast and cold. && .DISCUSSION... * Latest satellite imagery showed a shortwave trough moving through the PacNW/northern Rockies with a drier westerly flow set up across the region per ridge level wind sensors. This should help cap convection although GFS 500mb RH fields continue to show some shallow convective response near the White Mts late today and across southern Mono-Mineral counties Thu-Fri. ECS/GEFS maintain some low QPF for these areas Thu-Fri as well, although chances are less than 10%. A few buildups are more likely, but keep in mind it does not take much to get a storm or two this time of year. A general north gradient will prevail through Thursday with gusts remaining around 20 mph or less. * A couple of shortwaves are forecast to brush the region Saturday and again Monday which will maintain a dry and warm pattern with afternoon breezes returning. Can`t completely rule out a shower or two along the Oregon border as these systems pass (10-30% chance). Temperatures will remain steady around 10 degrees above normal as we head into the first few days of June with Reno- Tahoe Intl Airport maintaining a 30-40% chance of hitting its first 90 degree high temperature this Friday. * Ready for summer? Well, you may be in luck as ensemble clusters continue to show our first bout with significant warmth as 500mb height anomalies push +15 DAM centered to our north. Afternoon temperatures could easily push to levels we would normally see in early July and could even be warmer. We are talking 80 degrees for Sierra valleys and 90s across western NV. And with all this heat and a majority of the ensembles clusters (90% chance) indicating a light south/southeast flow into the Sierra, there is the potential for a few storms as well in the Wed-Fri timeframe. Hohmann && .AVIATION... * Operational period through 06Z Friday: VFR conditions. A few cumulus buildups may occur near KMMH, but probability of a storm is less than 10%. General northwest-north gradient with daytime wind gusts staying around 15-20 kts or less. * Dry and stable conditions will continue Friday into the weekend with more typical afternoon/evening W-SW breezes returning, gusts 25-30 kts. Hohmann && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$