738
FXUS65 KREV 232053
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
153 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Weak weather systems may bring a few showers later today, with an
increased chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Friday.
Enhanced afternoon breezes also return Friday and Saturday. The
remainder of the holiday weekend is looking dry, except a few
thunderstorms may form Monday afternoon. Near average temperatures
continue through Saturday, then become warmer Sunday through next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Near seasonal temperatures today through Saturday with warming
  trend starting Sunday and continuing into next week.

* Winds will edge upward Friday and Saturday afternoon-evening.
  Otherwise, expect typical afternoon breezes Sunday onward.

* The best chances for showers and isolated thunder arrive Friday.
  Isolated t-storms may also form near the Sierra Mon-Tues PM.

TODAY-FRIDAY:

A weak shortwave trough dropping into the western US today will
bring a low-end possibility (10-15% chance) of a few stray showers
through late this afternoon, favoring the Tahoe basin. Little or
no measurable rainfall is expected. The trough axis then swings
through northern CA and the Great Basin on Friday. This will bring
a renewed 15-25% chance for showers mainly for northeast CA-
northwest NV, although some of the higher resolution guidance
extends isolated 10-20% shower potential farther south into far
western-west central NV and from Tahoe to Mono County as well. The
risk of thunder is present but modest at about 10% across the
region. While most activity should wind down after sunset,
isolated showers may linger across areas north of Susanville-
Lovelock through late evening, as a bit of forcing associated with
the trough passage hangs on over these areas.

Winds will also pick up Friday afternoon-evening with increased
gusts in the 30-35 mph range. While no lake wind advisories are
planned at this time, locally choppy conditions could develop
across the western NV lakes.

REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND:

For Saturday, another shortwave trough brushing across the
northwest US will bring enhanced afternoon-evening breezes again
with similar 30-35 mph gust potential and lake impacts as
anticipated for Friday. Otherwise, we`ll see dry conditions
prevail for Saturday-Sunday, with lighter winds Sunday.

Temperatures will begin to climb upward as high pressure along the
west coast Saturday moves inland to the Great Basin by Memorial
Day. For Saturday, expect near average highs of mid 70s for lower
elevations and lower-mid 60s for Sierra communities, followed by
a steady upward climb to the mid 80s for lower elevations and
lower-mid 70s near the Sierra by Monday. For overnight campers in
the higher elevations, it will be on the chilly side especially
for Friday and Saturday nights where lows will dip into the
20s-30s. A weak upper disturbance combined with the increased
daytime heating could produce a few showers and thunderstorms
for the eastern Sierra and drifting into far western NV by mid-
late Monday afternoon.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND:

Ensemble cluster guidance continues to favor a general ridge
pattern for much of next week, keeping temperatures on the warm
side similar to Monday--about 10 degrees above average. Afternoon
cumulus buildups are likely most afternoons with isolated
thunderstorms again possible for the eastern Sierra on Tuesday.
While we can`t rule out these low-end thunder chances as we get
to the end of May and the first weekend of June, confidence
decreases as longer range guidance begins to diverge with more
variance in the overall pattern. Warmer scenarios would lead to
highs nearing 90 for western NV valleys (but nothing unusually
warm), but cooler scenarios bring more of a trough pattern into
the northwest US, with highs closer to seasonal averages. The
ensemble clusters show about 15-25% of the simulations bringing
some form of trough around the June 1-2 weekend, while the rest
generally indicate either a zonal flow or flat ridging. No
significant precip/thunder chances are evident across the region
into early June. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions will prevail through the holiday weekend.
  Moderate cumulus and brief very light rain showers could form
  near KTVL/KTRK later this afternoon between 21-01Z but produce
  few impacts to aviation.

* Chances for light rain showers increase to 10-20% for the main
  terminals Friday afternoon mainly from 20-02Z, but again
  producing limited impacts to aviation.

* Lighter winds today will be followed by increasing breezes
  mainly from the west with gusts 25-30 kt Friday-Saturday
  afternoons generally from 20-03Z, except a bit lighter for
  KTRK/KTVL. This will likely lead to periods of light to moderate
  turbulence east of the Sierra into western NV both days.

MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$