622
FXUS65 KRIW 040346
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
946 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues today. Chances decrease after sunset, lingering
  across northwestern and northern Wyoming through about
  sunrise Tuesday.

- Warm and dry Tuesday through the end of the work week.
  Warmest temperatures so far this year, with many locations in
  the upper 80s Thursday and Friday. A few places may hit 90.

- Elevated fire weather Tuesday and Wednesday as a result of dry
  and windy weather.

- Minor flooding concerns through this week as a result of rain
  today and warm temperatures the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

An upper level low over Saskatchewan continues to bring rain over
western Wyoming as the associated trough swings through the state
today. Highest rainfall totals will be over the mountains, where
0.25" to 0.75" additional liquid is possible through tonight. The
highest peaks may see around an inch. Rain chances spread east of
the Continental Divide this afternoon. Latest high-resolution models
have 15% to 35% chances. These showers and thunderstorms will occur,
but look to be limited in coverage. Rain begins to decrease after
sunset, lasting longest over northwestern and northern Wyoming
through about sunrise Tuesday.

There are minor flooding concerns, as rain falls on snowy mountains.
The biggest areas of concern are the western mountains and northern
Bighorns. River rises are expected through this week due to today`s
rain and warmer temperatures. We will continue to monitor this
situation through the week.

Today also brings gusty winds. The strongest winds will be across
the Wind Corridor, from eastern Lincoln County, eastward through
southern Sublette County, and through Sweetwater and Natrona
Counties. Gusts to around 45 mph are possible. Locations like Red
Canyon and Outer Drive in Casper could see the strongest gusts, to
around 60 mph possible. Also of note is the central mountains, where
gusts near 50 mph are possible through tomorrow as jet energy moves
across the state.

Drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday as a ridge begins to build in.
Combined with gusty winds of 30 to 35 mph, elevated fire weather
conditions may be in place. Thursday looks drier, but winds are not
as strong.

As the ridge builds for the latter half of the week, temperatures
climb. Thursday and Friday currently look to be the warmest days,
with highs in the 80s for much of the area. East of the Divide, some
locations may see their first 90s of the year. These temperatures are
10 to 15 degrees above average. Rain chances are very limited during
this time. No precipitation is expected Wednesday or Thursday. A
little Pacific moisture may move into the area Friday and Saturday,
sparking afternoon convection, but chances right now look to be 25%
or less. Temperatures stay warm through the weekend, with highs
in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Any showers across the forecast area are expected to end by 09Z.
A cold front will continue its push southward over areas east of
the Divide to start the TAF period, but is only expected to
impact KWRL and KCPR through 12Z, quickly washing out.
Otherwise, gusty winds up to 25 kt will continue to impact
several terminals. Higher gusts close to 35 kt will continue at
KCPR to start the forecast, but will decrease through 12Z,
before the cold front reaches the terminal. Winds will then
increase across the forecast area through 18Z, with gusts of 25
to 35 kt occurring through the afternoon. These winds will begin
to decrease around 02Z/03Z. Apart for isolated showers over far
northwestern portions from 17Z to 20Z, conditions will be dry.

Models are showing some indications of mountain wave activity along
the east slopes of the Wind River and Absaroka Mountains through
18Z. This pattern could create increased winds above the
foothills, but at elevations of 3-8K feet above the ground.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wittmann
AVIATION...LaVoie