526
FXUS65 KRIW 270448
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1048 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers will continue through the evening across
  northern Wyoming.

- Dry and sunny conditions expected for Memorial Day.

- Precipitation chances increase by midweek, though temperatures are
  likely to remain around or above normal through the week.

- River rises possible this week due to increasing mountain
  snowmelt.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

A weak shortwave evident in water vapor imagery is clipping northern
Wyoming this afternoon. This will lead to a few showers scattered
across northern portions of the CWA through the rest of the day,
most numerous in the vicinity of the Bighorns. Models have
continued to back off on rain amounts with this activity,
however, and most areas will remain dry. Otherwise, it will
continue to be breezy pretty much everywhere else through the
afternoon.

Precipitation and wind will wane with sunset as the shortwave moves
away to the east. Memorial Day will be dry all around with plenty of
sunshine as stronger ridging returns to the area. High temperatures
will peak around or a few degrees above normal. It will be breezy in
the usual spots, but overall fairly calm by Wyoming standards.

The warming trend will continue on Tuesday as highs reach into
the 80s east of the Divide and upper 70s west. There will be a
chance of some afternoon convection, however, as the ridge
begins to break down and available moisture increases. The best
chances will be over the western mountains, and most of the area
will again remain dry. With the warming temperatures, snowmelt
is likely to increase this week and may lead to an increased
river flooding concern.

By Tuesday night guidance is showing a stronger trough pushing into
the northwestern US. This will slide east through Wednesday, though
how far south it drops will have a large impact on the weather
across Wyoming. Current trends have placed this farther south,
bringing at least slight precipitation chances to the majority of
the area. For now, the forecast continues to show the best chances
across northern and western portions of the area. Further out,
guidance is showing fairly zonal or slightly cyclonic flow through
the end of the week. This would lead to temperatures around average
and mainly dry conditions, though with afternoon mountain
convection chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions with a mostly clear sky through the TAF period. Some
afternoon clouds develop, along with breezy winds to around 20 knots
for some sites. Winds will be mainly diurnally driven.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...Wittmann