329
FXUS65 KRIW 271133
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
533 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and warming trend through mid week.

- Snowmelt will lead to possible river rises as well.

- Some unsettled weather for late week and into the early
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Current IR depicts mainly clear skies across the CWA with some
streaking upper level clouds spilling over a building ridge
through the Pacific Northwest. This ridge will continue to
strengthen through mid week with increasing convergence aloft.
With it will come dry conditions and a warming trend through
Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures into the 70s east of the
Divide Monday with 60s to the west. Tuesday will see some 80s to
the east and even 70s west becoming more widespread on both
sides of the Divide come Wednesday. With the warming
temperatures will come increasing snowmelt. This will bring
increasing river flooding risk with rises in the lower valleys
and basins. Nothing is progged to reach any critical stages at
this point but will need a close eye to be had on in the coming
days.

The aforementioned upper level ridge will begin to progress
eastward into the upper Great Plains with a deepening trough
coming down from an upper level low out of the GOA into the
Pacific Northwest Wednesday. This will bring a bit of an
unsettled pattern for the northern Rockies through the end of
the work week and into next weekend but details are not concise
at this point in time. Most models are in agreement with the
bulk of the energy staying to the north into Montana skirting
northern portions of the CWA. Regardless, there will be some
widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to
contend with by week`s end for much of the area, especially for
northern sections of the CWA. Regardless, this pattern will
bring down the temperatures back to more seasonable for this
time of year heading into June to go along with these sporadic
precipitation chances.

Induced upper level ridging will push across for the later half
of the weekend and into the following week. The next big thing
to keep an eye on will be a much more potent low that longer
term models are progging to come down out of the GOA with
possible impacts for the middle of the first week of June. This
will all be dependent on how far south the main finger of the
PFJ will descend and what kind of PVA that will accompany it.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

High pressure will keep conditions VFR/SKC through the TAF period. A
breeze will develop at KBPI/KPNA/KRKS/KCPR Monday afternoon, with
light wind prevailing at all terminals by Monday evening.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lowe
AVIATION...Rowe