Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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516 FXUS65 KRIW 291029 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 429 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weather system brings more widespread rain shower and thunderstorm chances to the area today. It will also be breezy across the area. - The end of the week looks dry and a bit cooler after the system passes on Wednesday. Then, slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. - Monday looks hot and dry once again before another shortwave clips the area on Tuesday, with more rain shower/thunderstorm chances. - Long-range model guidance continues to indicate a hot and dry period beginning late next week as a dominant ridge sets up over the western US. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 A more meaningful shortwave will pass through today, with more widespread rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. The SPC has upgraded northern portions of the State to a Marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon. The only threats are strong to damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning, but small hail is possible (40%) as well. This shortwave will bring breezy conditions today. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler across northwestern portions of the area due to increased cloud cover and rain, elsewhere temperatures will be similar to Tuesday. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon due to the breezy wind, low RH, and warm temperatures. After this system moves through it will be warm and mostly dry through Friday. Another slight chance (20-30%) of rain showers/thunderstorms this weekend as another quick moving shortwave will slide through the Cowboy State. Minor river flooding is possible (30-40%) through tonight due to mountain snowmelt as temperatures remain warm today, but as it stands right now all rivers are behaving. Overall, it will be an unsettled weather pattern with shortwaves in mostly zonal flow through this weekend into next week. The shortwaves will all be quick moving and weak, so not expecting big precip makers or highly impactful weather into next week. It will be fairly breezy for most locations beginning today and continuing into next week. The breezy conditions, combined with low RH will lead to elevated fire weather conditions later this week through this weekend, although greenup will limit this threat. The amplified ridge that model guidance was indicating for next week now looks like it will develop a bit later as another trough slides through on Tuesday. Regardless of the active pattern temperatures will not drop all that much as each trough/shortwave should stay north as they pass through the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 421 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout the period for all TAF sites. Light winds and increasing mid to upper level clouds throughout the morning timeframe. Winds will increase after 18-19Z with gusts up to 25kts possible at all locations. Widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms expected after this point as well, west to east through around 01-04Z as it exits east. RKS will be south of the activity and remain dry throughout the period. Otherwise, scattered mid level clouds and decreasing winds after this point into the overnight hours through the end of the period Thursday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rowe AVIATION...Lowe