136
FXUS61 KRLX 241008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
608 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quasi-stationary front lifts north of the area today. Shortwave
grazes our area from the south late today/early Saturday. Another
round of showers/t-storms likely Sunday. Remaining unsettled Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 607 AM Friday...

Adjusted PoP and Wx grids per latest radar imagery trends.
Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 311 AM Friday...

Low clouds and areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms will exit
east of the Appalachians, as a mid-level shortwave exits early this
morning.

A weak mid level ridge develops to our west, while at the surface, a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains oriented west to east
across northern WV. This mid level feature brings dry air aloft
today, as noticed in local soundings. However, a hot, humid and
unstable airmass remains at the surface under a high CAPE; low deep
layered shear environment. Skinny tall soundings will allow for few
showers or pulse storms to develop and produce localized heavy
downpours during the afternoon and evening hours. Convection will be
more likely along the frontal boundary to our north, and should
diminish in intensity and coverage by sunset. Therefore, expect dry
weather for most of the morning and early afternoon hours, keeping
low chance PoPs during the afternoon as the potential for convection
exists across the entire area. Severe thunderstorms are not expected
at this time. SPC kept the area under general thunderstorms.
However, WPC kept a marginal area for excessive rainfall across
southern WV and southwest VA through tonight.

A lull in precipitation will be possible from sunset until the next
batch of convection ahead of an approaching cold front late tonight
into early Saturday morning.

Plenty of sunshine can be expected for the most part today, allowing
above normal high temperatures to reach the mid 80s across the
lowlands, ranging into the upper 60s higher elevations. Above normal
Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s lowlands, ranging into
the mid 50s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Friday...

Key Points:
* Unsettled, with localized flooding possible this weekend.
* Isolated severe storms possible Saturday, better chance on Sunday.
* Strong wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.

Unsettled weather continues into the weekend as a shortwave moves by
to the south on Saturday. Enough moisture and instability should be
present for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the day. Strong instability could support isolated
severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts or large
hail, despite modest shear. With precipitable water amounts ranging
from 1 to 1.5 inches, localized flooding could also be a concern if
multiple downpours were to impact the same area.

A low spinning over Manitoba and Western Ontario directs a cold
front towards the area from the west. This front is expected to
proceed into the CWA Saturday night, before being lifted back out of
the area as a new low crosses the central plains and tracks into the
Great Lakes region Sunday into Sunday night. Forecast soundings
continue to indicate potential for severe weather on Sunday
when moderate to strong instability is expected to develop in
conjunction with moderate shear, steep lapse rates, and DCAPE
exceeding 1000 J/kg. The SPC severe weather outlook for day 3
now highlights much of the CWA within a marginal risk of severe
weather. Excessive rainfall also remains a concern as heavy
downpours could occur in storms. Flooding would be most likely
in poor drainage areas or locations where the ground is already
saturated from previous rainfall.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal throughout the
weekend, with highs expected to be in the 80s in the lowlands
and 70s to mid 80s along the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM Friday...

A cold front sweeps across the area on Monday as the parent low
lifts out of the Great Lakes and moves northeast into Canada.
Showers and thunderstorms should accompany the frontal passage, then
both precipitation coverage and intensity are expected to diminish
as drier air seeps in behind the front during the latter half of the
day. That being said, showers and storms remain possible at times
through the middle of the week as several shortwaves pivot through
an upper level trough. Upper troughing eventually slides east and is
supplanted by an upper ridge which should conduct drier conditions
back into the area for the end of the work week.

Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal on Monday,
then return to near to below normal for the rest of the long
term forecast period following the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 607 AM Friday...

An area of showers and thunderstorms will exit east of the
Appalachians early this morning. Behind this activity, low
stratus will filter in, but will dissipate by mid morning.
However, a quasi- stationary frontal boundary overhead will
lift north keeping the area under the warm sector of the
approaching cold front. The heat and low level moisture will
allow for afternoon showers or storms to develop once again into
the evening hours. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions can be
expected under moderate to heavy showers. Otherwise, widespread
VFR conditions will prevail through the period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on convection today.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may miss any terminal
directly, but still be in the vicinity.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               FRI 05/24/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ