Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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647 FXUS61 KRLX 290647 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 247 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper disturbance brings showers and storms today. High pressure Thursday into the weekend. Disturbances bring showers and storms late Saturday night into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Wednesday... Some early morning valley fog and stratus are currently present mainly along and near the mountains while a line of showers and storms invades from the west. This line will mainly traverse the northern half of the CWA, while isolated showers move through to the south this morning. Showers and storms are then expected to become more widespread in the afternoon as a shortwave trough continues to slowly migrate east overhead. Precipitation coverage diminishes following the departure of the shortwave tonight, then drier conditions are expected for the remainder of the overnight period. Low stratus could linger over the mountains through the night, while clearing to the west should allow for the development of valley fog. Temperatures are expected to remain a bit cooler than normal today, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the lowlands and mid 50s to upper 60s along the mountains. Tonight will then be chilly, with lows ranging from mid 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Tuesday... Any lingering showers over the northeast mountains dissipate through Wednesday night with dry conditions expected through Friday night. Troughing over the east coast will yield temperatures around 5 degrees below normal for this time of the year with a rather dry airmass making it feel quite pleasant during the afternoons. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the lower elevations with mid 30s to mid 40s across the higher elevations. This could yield some patchy frost across the better protected mountain valleys Friday morning, but otherwise minimal weather concerns are expected. Ridging translating east into the Middle Ohio Valley during the day Friday will signal a return to warmer and more humid conditions for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 220 PM Tuesday... Warm moist advection begins in earnest during the day Saturday as southwesterly flow increases. Precipitable water values increase to around 1.5 inches by Saturday night. A relatively weak wave emerging from the southern Rockies Thursday night arriving in the Middle Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday should provide upper level forcing for ascent and associated increasing H850 winds down low will provide some level of mass convergence at the nose of a LLJ. Mid- level lapse rates look marginal at best to support much conditional instability, but may see some build with daytime heating Sunday yielding some efficient rain makers. Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in a weak flow regime as humidity lingers. This should yield mainly diurnally driven convection with slow moving convective cores. Will have to see what the soils look like when we get there after rain from Saturday night into Sunday, but some localized hydro issues would appear to be possible. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 120 AM Wednesday... Mainly VFR is currently present, though valley fog and low stratus have developed primarily across the eastern half of the area. This fog/stratus may bring some IFR/LIFR restrictions early this morning. A line of showers and storms approaching from the west will continue into the area this morning, then showers and storms are expected to become more widespread for the afternoon as a disturbance slowly moves overhead. Periodic MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities may occur within any heavier showers or storms today. Precipitation is expected to taper off after 00Z as the disturbance departs, though MVFR or worse conditions will again be possible in fog and low stratus anticipated to form late in the period. Light winds may pick up as storms move through this morning. Flow becomes westerly during the day, with 15-20kt gusts possible through the afternoon. Winds lessen overnight and take on a northwesterly direction. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration and extent of fog/stratus may vary from the TAFs. Timing of sub-VFR conditions in showers and storms today may also vary. Fog may develop again late in the TAF period. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/29/24 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L M L L H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in the mountains in fog and stratus Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB NEAR TERM...JLB SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JLB