Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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883 FXUS61 KRLX 260757 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 357 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and storms through Memorial Day weekend in response to a cold front. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours will be possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 248 AM Sunday... Key Points: * Hot and humid today. * Enhanced risk for severe storms NE Kentucky through tonight. * Slight risk for severe storms rest of the area, except NE mountains through tonight. * Slight risk for excessive rainfall over the southern two thirds of the area through tonight. Widespread river valley dense fog will gradually dissipate early this morning. Frontal boundary, oriented west to east across our north, lifts north as a warm front this morning, leaving the area under a warm sector of an approaching cold front. Winds increase from the southwest, bringing strong moisture advection with boundary layer theta-e values exceeding 340K by this afternoon. A mid level shortwave crosses the area this afternoon, providing upper forcing to enhance convection. Local bufkit soundings show a tall/skinny CAPE signature with dry air at the mid levels by this afternoon. Guidance suggest deep layered shear will limited over most parts of the area, except far west across NE KY where values of 50 to 60 knots are anticipated. These ingredients will allow for strong to severe updrafts /downdrafts, the strongest; farther west where the best dynamics will be present. With PWATs increasing from 1.3 to 1.7 inches by this evening, very heavy downpours are likely, some capable to produce flash flooding. Hi-res CAMs suggest a strong line of convection arriving to the Tri-state area (OH/KY/WV) around 3 PM spreading east as some elements weaken. A second batch of convection is forecasted right behind it, but it seems to weaken as well as the reach NE KY and portions of the Mid Ohio valley. However, strong to severe storms may be able to survive and spread east further into WV with the passing of another upper level shortwave around midnight as convective parameters become more active, with deep layered shear increasing to 55 knots, PWATs around 1.7 inches and CAPE about 1200 J/Kg. SPC maintains an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms over NE KY, a slight risk roughly across the rest of the area, except for the northern mountains through tonight. Therefore, expecting scattered to possibly numerous severe storms around the Tri- State area this afternoon and evening, with damaging gusty wind, large hail, and the possibility of tornadoes being the main threats. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall across the southern two thirds of the area, and a marginal risk across the northern third. This translates to the possibility of very heavy rain and associated flash flooding. Despite clouds and convection expected, highs will manage to reach the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s across the higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Lows tonight will generally be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM Sunday... Key Points: * Localized flooding and severe storms possible as a cold front crosses Monday. * Unsettled again with a disturbance on Tuesday. On Monday, rain and thunderstorms are projected to move through the area ahead of and along a cold front. This frontal boundary traverses the area during the afternoon while the parent low, initially located over the Great Lakes, eases northeast into Canada. Localized flooding caused by heavy downpours remains one of the primary concerns for Monday along with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe storms. Any severe storms that develop could produce damaging wind gusts or hail. Precipitation chances are projected to diminish as the front exits Monday night. A few showers may linger into Tuesday, though the majority of the area should experience a lull in precipitation during the morning. A shortwave moving through an upper trough is then expected to reintroduce shower and storm chances in the afternoon or evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 AM Sunday... Key Points: * Unsettled through Wednesday. * Dry to close out the week. An upper level trough remains present over the area on Wednesday, while a shortwave moving through the trough is expected to aid in shower and thunderstorms development during the day. Drier conditions then return late in the work week as the upper trough slides east and surface high pressure begins building in from the northwest. High pressure is then expected to maintain control through the end of the week. Temperatures should to hover slightly below normal during the middle of the week, then trend warmer late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 AM Sunday... Ongoing convection producing IFR/LIFR conditions at CKB and EKN through at least 09Z. Once this convection moves east, IFR/LIFR dense fog is expected to develop along river valleys to affect mainly EKN, CKB, and PKB during from 09-12Z. Valley fog may be too shallow to reach CRW and BKW. Any dense fog will quickly dissipate by 12-13Z. Increasing chances for strong to severe thunderstorms may result in greater area coverage Sunday afternoon and evening. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected along any convection that manage to develop. In addition, strong to severe gusty winds, large hail and localized heavy rain will be possible with stronger storms. VFR conditions will prevail outside convection. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of fog and its intensity may vary for late tonight into Sunday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 05/26/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible at times in showers and storms through early next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...ARJ