163
FXUS61 KRLX 231616
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1216 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front brings showers/thunderstorms today. Wave grazes our
area from the south late Friday/early Saturday. Another round of
showers/t-storms likely Sunday. Remaining unsettled Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Thursday...

Main change was to slow down the incoming POPs for the
Huntington Tri-State area and Mid-Ohio Valley, as it seems like
the current push is directed mainly towards the southern
coalfields and SW VA counties. Seems like the Huntington area
probably won`t see any showers or storms until around 18z or so,
but did keep Chance POPs in that area after 15z owing to the
uncertainty on whether anything new may pop up ahead of the
current activity. Otherwise, just made minor tweaks to QPF and
sky based on the latest guidance.


As of 550 AM Thursday...

Updated PoPs with latest guidance. Currently, showing
showers and thunderstorms arriving in our KY and SWVA counties
by mid-morning. Storms crossing Western and Central KY are
holding together, with a few severe warnings being issued on
some.

As of 240 AM Thursday...

Key Points:

  * Areas of low fog and stratus this morning.

  * Rounds of showers and storms arrive by mid-morning, last
    into evening.

  * Storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail.

  * There is a marginal risk of severe weather for today.

  * Localized to isolated areas of flash flooding possible with
    heavy rainfall within showers and storms.

  * There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today.

Some showers are traversing the area still, but lightning and
convective activity has all but diminished. Areas of fog and low
stratus will form in spots tonight given the rainfall and
storms received today. Lows this morning will be in the 60s
across much of the area, but it will be muggy with recent
rainfall and lingering moisture.

Cold front will move down out of Ohio this morning before stalling
over our SE Ohio counties for much of the day. Watching a small
storm system crossing KY right now that appears to be holding
together. Models show this system arriving by mid-morning or
earlier. Another couple rounds of storms with breaks in between will
last into the evening with the stationary cold front lingering. Some
storms could have damaging winds and some hail, so SPC has our area
outlooked for a marginal risk for severe weather.

With all the cloud cover and moisture, temperatures will be
about 7-10 degrees cooler for some locations today. Mid to
upper 70s will be common across the lowlands; upper 60s to mid
70s in the mountains. That said, instability is not as
impressive as it was yesterday, with CAPE values south of 500
J/kg for much of the day due to cloud cover.

CAMs do show a surge with peak heating later this
afternoon/evening though with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, areas of
near 2,000 J/kg SBCAPE and over 100 J/kg of 0-3kftAGL CAPE.
This trend seems likely to happen if we get breaks in the clouds
leading to more scattered areas of differential heating and
instability. Lift will be of no problem today with the front,
especially when it starts moving some later today.

The area is also outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall today. Areas that received a lot of rainfall yesterday
could see localized to isolated flooding with rounds of showers
and storms, especially those that see repeated training of
cells in the afternoon. Precipitable water is nothing to scoff
at either, with models showing over an inch across the area most
of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1214 PM Thursday...

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the holiday weekend
with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. A mid-level
shortwave trough will be exiting southern portions of WV and
southwest VA Saturday morning, and this can create showers and
isolated t-storms over these areas through about midday. Any
thunderstorms Saturday morning will likely be non-severe. A period
of dry weather is anticipated Saturday afternoon, but a few isolated
pop-up storms cannot be ruled out. Again, severe weather is not
anticipated Saturday due to a lack of 0-6 km shear (only expected to
be 15-25 kts). Any downpours that repeatedly move over the same
areas may lead to localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1214 PM Thursday...

The severe weather potential may be a bit higher on Sunday, but
models are still not in very good agreement with the overall setup.
It appears that a mid-level shortwave will propagate along a slow-
moving frontal boundary across central West Virginia and southeast
Ohio by Sunday afternoon, creating afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances. Models are in pretty good agreement that the
best severe weather parameters will be west of our County Warning
Area, across central and western Kentucky. Some models bring
favorable severe weather parameters into portions of northeast
Kentucky, southern Ohio and western West Virginia Sunday afternoon
and evening. SPC currently has far western portions of our area in a
15% risk of severe weather for Day 4, which corresponds to a Slight
Risk. Sunday`s environment will be very saturated with models
showing PWAT values anywhere from 1.5-1.8 inches across the region.
Because of this, we are concerned about potential for flooding,
especially given the saturated ground from our unsettled pattern.

A large 500-mb trough with its associated surface low pressure and
cold front will track eastward across the Great Lakes Monday. This
will provide another push for showers and thunderstorms across the
region. Again, given the recent unsettled pattern, we will remain on
alert for potential flooding issues. Mid-level drier air will filter
back into the region from the west behind the cold front late Monday
afternoon. Given this information, downpours probably won`t be as
potent behind the cold front.

Lingering showers will remain possible Tuesday with energy still
spinning around the upper-level trough. It appears that we will
finally see a respite from the wet and unsettled weather by the
middle of next week with at least a couple of days of drier weather
for most.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM Thursday...

Most sites are VFR or MVFR under BKN or OVC low-level
clouds. There will likely be a brief period of improvement to
VFR for much of the area this morning.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be moving
through the area from southwest to northeast between ~13-18Z
this morning, MVFR and IFR restrictions likely in or around any
of these showers and storms. This activity will continue into
the afternoon and evening hours, with breaks in between cells
this afternoon. Showers will continue this evening before
slacking off overnight, possibly giving way to low stratus and
fog.

Winds light and out of the southwest this morning. Becoming
variable this afternoon, but mostly southwest in direction
before slacking off after sunset. Winds will be variable and
gusty in and around showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, intensity and location of storms
today may vary.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...FK/LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC