Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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672 FXUS61 KRLX 311616 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1216 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the next work week. Above normal temperatures in store next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 740 AM Friday... Frost advisory will expire on time at 8 AM this morning with temperatures rising quickly with morning mixing across the mountain valleys. As of 605 AM Friday... GOES-R nighttime microphysics imagery evinces a somewhat more widepsread river valley fog than previously anticipated. The fog will lift and dissipate 730-9 AM. Temperatures in the northern mountain valleys were also low enough to support frost, at least away from rivers. The remainder of the forecast is on track with high pressure in control. As of 220 AM Friday... Early morning temperatures and the frost advisory appear to be on track. Nothing more than river valley steam fog is expected early this morning. High pressure surface and aloft promotes dry weather this period, with clear sky through much of today. Surface high pressure drifting east of the area tonight allows for return light east to southeast low level flow, while the mid-upper level ridge axis passing overhead later this afternoon and tonight allows high, thin cirrus to encroach from the west. Central guidance temperatures and dew points looked on or close, except dew points a little lower this afternoon, and temperatures and dew points a little lower in the valleys tonight. The low level return flow and high thin cirrus will again keep valley fog limited again despite higher dew points then this morning, but the higher dew points should keep mountain valley low temperatures high enough to preclude frost. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1214 PM Friday... A 500-mb shortwave and an associated surface low will approach from the west Sunday, bringing another chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Cloudy skies will keep daytime temperatures in the 70s for most. Expect anywhere from 0.25-0.50" south of I-64 and 0.50- 0.75" for places north of I-64. Drier and warmer weather should return Monday as the shortwave exits to the east and a ridge builds aloft. Highs in the 80s will return across the lowlands with the upper 70s expected in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1214 PM Friday... With surface high pressure sliding to the east, unsettled weather will return across the state for the rest of the week with summertime heat and humidity building. Expect daily chances of diurnal showers and thunderstorms with warm, southerly flow at the surface and several weak disturbances passing aloft. It looks like Wednesday will be the worst day for heat and humidity with highs in the 80s for most and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A large cold front will sweep across the eastern 1/3 of the country Thursday. Behind the cold front, temperatures should settle down closer to average and precipitation chances should begin to decrease. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 605 AM Friday... GOES-R nighttime microphysics imagery evinces a somewhat more widepsread river valley fog than previously anticipated. This showed up intermittently at EKN and has also showed up at CRW. The fog should lift/dissipate 12-13Z. High pressure will otherwise promote mainly VFR conditions amid light flow this period. Calm conditions early this morning will give way to light north to northeast surface flow later this morning, and then calm to light and variable to southeast tonight. Light flow aloft through today will become light and variable to east tonight. This and high cloud should limit river valley steam fog tonight but, with higher dew points, it cannot be entirely ruled out. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high otherwise. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Burn off of fog first thing this morning could vary a bit. River valley steam fog overnight tonight may impact EKN and CRW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Tuesday. IFR possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, overnight Monday night and early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ NEAR TERM...TRM/JP SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...TRM