739
FXUS61 KRNK 030737
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
337 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United
States through Tuesday. Daily showers and thunderstorms
continue for the region through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday,
a cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to
the Mid Atlantic region. A brief break in the wet weather
pattern is expected behind the front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Warmer today and mostly dry. An isolated mountain
shower/storm possible.

High pressure continues to remain offshore and southwest flow
will continue to supply warm and humid conditions. Areas of fog
this morning and mostly cloudy skies. Fog dissipates around
sunrise.

Subtle ridging overhead today will keep showers and storms to a
minimum, but enough daytime heating should allow for a few
isolated showers and storms across the mountains.

Any storms will weaken by sunset with loss of daytime heating,
leaving only a few showers across the area tonight. Fog
development will be possible again tonight.

Temperatures warming with slight ridging, generally near to just
above normal with highs in the mid upper 70s for the mountains
and low 80s over the Piedmont.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM EDT SUNDAY...

Key Points:

1. Temperatures will be above normal during this time period.
2. Precipitation chances will gradually increase through the period
with Wednesday night seeing the greatest coverage with the arrival
of a cold front.

A look at the 2 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows an upper ridge over the region Monday night. This
ridge holds fast for Tuesday, but with a shortwave trough moving
into the western Great Lakes region by Tuesday evening. For
Wednesday, the east coast ridge weakens with its axis shifting east.
The western Great Lakes shortwave trough pivots such that it becomes
negatively tilted with its axis reaching into parts of the Tennessee
Valley. At the surface for Monday night, low pressure is expected to
located over MT, with an associated cold front extending south along
the lee of the Rockies. A weak surface high will be over the mid-
Atlantic region. Tuesday into Wednesday, the high over the mid-
Atlantic region is expected to shift into the western Atlantic while
the low move east into central Ontario. By Wednesday evening, its
associated cold front will be around the Mississippi River Valley
region.

Output from the 2 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures around +16C across the area Tuesday through
Thursday. Precipitable water values are expected to gradually
increase through the Monday through Wednesday time period. On
Monday, values are expected to range from 1.00 to 1.25 inch, and
reach around 1.50 inch by Wednesday. This value will touch the low
end of the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year climatology.

The above weather scenario points towards increasing chances of
showers and storms in advance of an approaching cold front. On
Tuesday, this activity will be primarily during the peak heating of
the day and across the mountains. For Wednesday, coverage will
continue to increase in coverage and time of occurrence.

Late Wednesday night look for very good coverage across the area,
especially in the west, as a cold front crosses the area.

Temperatures across the region will average above normal for this
time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Friday through the weekend.
2. Daily chances of at least showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
or two with coverage best over the mountains.

A look at the 2 June 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows for Thursday a negatively tilted shortwave trough
inching eastward, such that its trough reaches the southern
Appalachians. For Friday, not much movement is expected for the
trough, however it is expected to deepen, and almost cut off from
the northern flow across northern Canada. By Saturday, the trough is
expected to expand in scope, with its orientation not changing all
that much. However, its geographical range is expected to reach more
of that of a longwave trough. A similarly persistent ridge is
expected to be located over the Rockies. For Sunday, little change
is expected in the overall synoptic pattern across CONUS. At the
surface on Thursday, surface low pressure will be near James Bay
with its associated cold front crossing our region during the
morning. A reinforcing 850mb front will cross Thursday
evening/night. Friday through Sunday, the surface low is expected to
remain situated near the Ontario/Quebec border, with a ensemble
averaging keeping a lee side trough/front over eastern VA south into
SC.

Output from the 2 June 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures cooling a bit from mid-week, down to around
+12C to +14C by Friday. Values remain around +12C to +14C through
the weekend. Precipitable Water values are expected to gradually
trend lower heading into the weekend. Expected values on Thursday to
be in the 1.25 to 1.50 range. Friday through Sunday, values around
1.00 inch will be more common.

Look for a cooler period and one that will see daily chances of at
least showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, a general pattern of
upper level troughiness takes up residency over the area. However,
on average, coverage should be greatest over the mountains each day.
While coverage of the precipitation will not be continuous through
this entire time period, confidence in the timing of the periods of
greater coverage versus lesser coverage of precipitation is low at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Mix of VFR to IFR across the area this morning. Valley fog has
developed and will continue to impact flight conditions at
select terminals through daybreak. LWB especially and areas
across the Carolina Foothills and New River Valley.

Should see improvements through the morning once fog dissipates
just after sunrise. Low-end VFR expected, but with gradual
lifting of cigs throughout the day. A few isolated showers this
afternoon, but not widespread enough to introduce a mention of
showers into the TAFs.

Fog development is possible again tonight, especially for areas
that receive rain today.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mostly VFR, but ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA could result in periodic
restrictions through the period. Some BR is also possible,
especially in valley locations through Tuesday.

Greater likelihood of flight restrictions/MVFR (or lower)
on Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms ahead
of a cold front.

Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR
conditions behind the front.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG