257
FXUS63 KSGF 240517
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1217 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms move into the area Friday morning. Some may be
  severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- If enough instability remains, additional strong to severe
  storms may develop Friday afternoon along and south of
  Interstate 44 with large hail and damaging winds.

- Additional severe weather and heavy rain chances Saturday
  night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Short range forecast remains generally on track though timing has
slowed with the system lifting into the Dakotas and associated
trailing cold front advecting across the Plains.

Through tonight - a warm front has progressed northward through
the forecast area with a cap limiting convection from
developing. With the shift of winds to the south, dew points
have climbed into the middle 60s to near 70...with even more
moisture streaming into the system as evident by the stratus on
satellite.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the highly unstable and
sheared environment across the Plains this afternoon into this
evening...though questions on cold pool development advancing the
arrival time of thunderstorms overnight vs storms moving well ahead
of the line and losing their organization.

CAM model soundings in agreement that MLCAPES above 3000 J/KG will
be in place over southeast KS this evening though some disagreement
on whether the cap will break until forcing from the approaching
outflow arrives so there may be a few scattered thunderstorms from
evening into the night before the main band of strong to severe
storms arrives over southeast Kansas into western Missouri toward
sunrise.

This band of storms will likely weaken and then strengthen once
once again increase in coverage and strengthen Friday afternoon
over the eastern half of the forecast as the front works its
way east across the forecast area. While uncapped, the
atmosphere ahead of the convection will loose some of its
instability thanks to warming mid level lapse rates.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Southwesterly flow will resume as the western trough digs then
advects eastward into the Plains Saturday. Progged soundings reveal
an uncapped, highly unstable atmosphere.  The veering profile lacks
strong lower level winds at the present, though anticipate winds to
strengthen as the surface low deepens rapidly over Kansas.  Similar
to the system tonight...the nocturnal elements may lead to severe
threats diminishing and then redeveloping farther east on Sunday.

Of concern with the Saturday night/Sunday system will be increasing
precipital water leading to the potential for very heavy rainfall
rates falling on moist soils from recent storms.

A trailing shortwave will be monitored for the potential for showers
Monday...otherwise the Holiday through midweek will be mild with
highs in the 70s to near 80 and drier dew points.  Dry weather will
then prevail into midweek as a welcome surface high builds across
the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

For the 06z TAFS, we remain capped across the area late this
evening. A thunderstorm complex to the north should continue to
track east and remain north of the area. We should remain dry
for much of the overnight hours. An approaching frontal boundary
from the west will move into eastern KS by 12z and may spark
some convection early this morning after 11z at JLN. Cells will
likely be more isolated or widely scattered initially, but
should increase in coverage as we get into the mid to late
morning and the instability increases out ahead of the front.
Will be carrying prob30 groups for the 3 TAF sites but this may
need to be bumped up to tempo groups in the 12z tafs later.

Generally expecting VFR conditions outside of any convection,
but we could get some MVFR and brief IFR within any convection
that develops later. Some gusty winds out of the south will
develop ahead of the front with winds switching to the northwest
and becoming light behind the front late this afternoon and
evening.



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Lindenberg