Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
333 FXUS66 KSGX 311039 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 339 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Generally seasonal weather will prevail into next week with minor day to day changes. It will be a little cooler through Sunday with the greatest cooling for most areas on Sunday. A little warmer on Monday with greater warming into Wednesday and Thursday of next week with high temperatures a few degrees above average at the coast to as much as 8 to 12 degrees above average for the deserts. The marine layer will fluctuate between 2000 and 2500 feet into early next week, then become a little shallower for Wednesday and Thursday of next week with areas of night and morning low clouds spreading into portions of the valleys. There will be gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts each late afternoon through late evening with those winds a little stronger on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... The marine layer is near 2000 to 2500 feet deep with coastal low clouds extending inland across much of the San Diego County valleys and spreading into western and southern portions of the Inland Empire with not much change expected through the weekend. High temperatures today will be slightly cooler for the valleys with Saturday a few degrees cooler for the mountains. Sunday will be a few degrees cooler for most areas with the deserts a few degrees above average and the coast and valleys a few to around 5 degrees below average, in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the Inland Empire and the upper 90s to 103 for the lower deserts. There will be gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts for each late afternoon through late evening. The stronger gusts along the desert slopes of the mountains will be mostly 25 to 35 mph for Saturday and Sunday with gusts to 40 to 50 mph in the northern Coachella Valley below the San Gorgonio Pass. && .LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)... Monday will warm slightly with greater warming for Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure strengthens over the western states. Cluster analysis for Thursday and Friday of next week shows that it is a subset of GFS ensemble members alone that have a cooler solution for the western states with a more substantial trough of low pressure near the West Coast. There is no support for this solution from any of the ensemble members of the ECMWF and Canadian models. With the warming, high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday would be a few degrees above average near the coast to as much as 8 to 12 degrees above average for the deserts, into the mid 80s to mid 90s for the Inland Empire, the mid 90s to 102 for the Apple and Lucerne Valleys, and 106 to 112 for the lower deserts. Night and morning coastal low clouds will continue to spread into portions of the valleys. && .AVIATION... 310930Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based at 1000-1400 feet MSL with tops to 1800 feet will continue to move into portions of inland valleys through 14Z. Vis 0-5SM inland. Scatter out 16-19Z from inland to coast, but only partial and intermittent clearing at immediate coast. Low clouds to move ashore and inland after 00Z, filling the coastal basin overnight into Saturday, with bases and vis a little higher. Mountains/Deserts...Clear skies with unrestricted VIS today and tonight. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE...MM