557
FXUS64 KSHV 191745
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1245 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Bumped a handful of high temps up a degree or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Very light wind this morning is starting to pick up a little
speed, but so far the near calm air is warming at fast pace. So
with this update, we have gone with some mid 90s along I-49 with
both SHV and TXK at 88 degrees. The cu field spreading out, but is
well up there 4-6kft and much more prolific west of I-49. Water
vapor is showing the upper ridge axis over LA and S AR with a
short wave nudging into the TX/OK panhandles. This will force the
ridge to the E/NE with today seeing loads of sunshine and perhaps
some of the warmest temps since late last summer. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The large scale pattern to begin the long term period will
feature a fairly high amplitude pattern across the CONUS with a
large scale trough over the Western US and large scale
(relatively) ridging over the Eastern US. An impulse will eject
out of the large scale Western US trough into the Central Plains
Monday night, enhancing lee cyclogenesis across the OK panhandle,
with this sfc cyclone then moving into Kansas Tuesday morning.
This will begin to push sfc high pressure across the ArkLaTex
eastward, with an increasing pressure gradient and enhanced
southerly flow from the GOM northward across E TX. Low cloud cover
is expected over a good portion of western zones Tuesday morning.
Upper level ridge influence then looks to remain strong enough to
make for another hot and partly to mostly sunny day with high
temps again in the low to mid 90. Dewpoints will begin to creep
towards 70 degrees, so it will begin to feel a bit muggier. The
ridge axis will be slowly shifting east of the area late in the
day as an upper level low deepens and closes over the Upper MS
Valley and the Western US trough progresses eastward into the
Plains.

As both the upper level and sfc lows over the Upper MS Valley
deepen substantially Tuesday night into Wednesday, convection will
develop along the associated frontal boundaries, the cold frontal
portion of which will extend S/SW into AR and N TX. Convection
along the front in our neck of the woods is likely to be enhanced
by additional short wave perturbations, so expect rain and storm
chances to return to far northern zones late Tuesday into
Wednesday. SPC has clipped far northern zones in a marginal risk
for severe weather.

On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will dampen, leaving its
influence south and east of the area, with the upper level flow
turning more quasi-zonal to SW. The frontal boundary will slowly
sink towards the LA/AR border and despite the best dynamics from
the parent system being displaced well to the north across the
Great Lakes, shortwaves within the weakly-oriented SW flow will
fire convection across the boundary Wednesday afternoon and
evening. While not outlooked by SPC on Wednesday, given dewpoints
around 70 or into the low 70s and the boundary in the CWA, a few
strong to severe storms certainly appear possible, esp given model
projected mean layer instability in the 1000-2000J/kg range.

Wednesday night into Thursday, this boundary is likely to either
remain stationary or gently shift northward. With an unstable
environment encompassing just about the entire CWA on Thursday,
the threat for severe weather will exist, especially as another
shortwave looks to pass overtop the boundary carry the boundary
back into/across the area. SPC currently has the area outlooked
and will watch this closely over the next few days.

The boundary and the shortwave will then pass to the east on
Friday, with little to essentially no change in airmass and
additional shortwaves passing across the area. A few showers and
thunderstorms appear possible Friday afternoon and evening, more
diurnally driven than previous days. The same story appears likely
for Saturday before general ensemble consensus leans towards the
rebuilding of the upper level ridge. High temps look hot to end
the forecast period, in the mid 90s with dewpoints near 70 or in
the low 70s, resulting in heat indices near or just above 100
degrees.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

For the 19/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected through the
period with just some fair weather cumulus averaging around 5Kft
this afternoon. Mostly SKC conditions are expected overnight with
a few instances of patchy fog possible, but aviation impacts are
not likely. Otherwise, light E/SE winds will persist around 5 kts
or less today and tonight, increasing from the S/SE on Monday to
between 6-12 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  67  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  66  89  67  88 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  69  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  66  92  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  70  90  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  69  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  69  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...19