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FGUS74 KSHV 161644
ESFSHV
171044-


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1144 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Neches River basin of East Texas...


In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days.  For example...the Mud Creek near Jacksonville
Texas flood stage is 9 feet.  There is a 50 percent change the
Mud Creek will rise above 7.8 feet during the next 90 days.


        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
         valid for May 15, 2024 through August 13, 2024


     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

Mud Creek
 Jacksonville 7E    9  7.0  7.0  7.0  7.6  7.8  8.4  9.2  9.9 10.7
East Fork Angelina River
 Cushing 4N        15 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.4 15.5 16.0
Angelina River
 Alto 8E           29 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.8
Attoyac Bayou
 Chireno 3E        14 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.3
Ayish Bayou
 San Augustine 10S 12 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.5 11.6 12.1 13.3 14.5 15.1
Neches River
 Neches 4NE        12 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.5 15.6 17.1
 Alto 8SW          16 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.9 19.0
 Diboll 4S         12 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2
 Rockland          26 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6


Location      90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Palestine 345.8 345.8 345.8 345.8 345.9 346.0 346.1 346.7 347.7

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed
using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological
and stream flow data.  These probabilities also account for the
current river flows and soil moisture conditions.  By providing the
complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk
associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv (internet address
URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

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