Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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116 FXUS64 KSJT 300704 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 204 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 This afternoon, a weak outflow boundary was moving southwestward through west central Texas. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the 60s. Although CAPE values are around 3000 J/kg this afternoon, a stronger ridge is in place today than yesterday which should be a tougher cap for potential convection to fight through. As a result, instability this afternoon and evening looks rather conditional and any showers or storms should be fairly short lived. Later this evening, mainly after sunset, a weak wave should approach the Trans-Pecos area where CAPE values are around 5000 J/kg. Storms look to develop over the Davis Mountains, where the best convergence is located, and move northeastward toward Crockett County. Any storms that develop have chances for large hail and damaging winds due to the better mid-level lapse rates in this area. Thunderstorm chances look to ramp up again tomorrow as southerly surface flow increases and brings higher dewpoints into west central Texas. Models show CAPE values in the 3000-5000 J/kg range. An upper-level wave moving through the central Plains could result in some scattered thunderstorms developing early tomorrow morning across the Big Country, so PoPs were confined to this location. Higher chances, however, exist late in the afternoon to early evening just after peak heating for areas further south. Storms should fire along the dryline, which models show will be located from the Panhandle southward through the Permian Basin. Another upper-level impulse moving into the Panhandle should provide plenty of support for development as they push eastward into our county warning area in the evening. Given the location of the wave, areas most likely to be impacted by storms will be from the Concho Valley northward. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Rain chances will continue across West Central Texas Friday into Saturday, with a gradual drying trend Sunday into early next week. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is forecast to track across much of the area Thursday night into early Friday morning. The NAN Nest and to a lesser extent the HRRR show another round of storms moving from northwest to southwest across the area later Friday morning. If this does occur, it might limit our storm potential for later in the day. Otherwise, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon. A weak cold front may also serve as a focus for convection. Strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the Big Country and much of the Heartland to the upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. On Saturday, an upper level ridge will remain centered across northern Mexico, with West Central Texas in west flow aloft. The GFS indicates a disturbance tracking across the area late in the day, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms to our west, with this activity then tracking across the forecast area late in the day and into the overnight hours. The ECMWF is drier, so for now have kept PoPs in the low end chance category. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. On Sunday, isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible, mainly confined to the Big Country and Heartland. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Upper level ridging will begin to build into the region by early next week, with an increase in temperatures through the middle of the week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 90s to near 102. Slight chance PoPs return to the area by the middle of next week. Isolated mainly diurnally driven convection is possible on the eastern periphery of the ridge. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Veil of high clouds continues across West Central Texas terminals early this morning, with some patchy MVFR cigs peeking out occasionally. This will largely continue through sunrise, with mainly VFR conditions at many sites but some some brief MVFR cigs as well. We continue to monitor the 1 storm across the eastern Permian Basin as well as Eastern New Mexico but radar trends suggest neither of these is likely to be a problem through 12Z at least. Latest CAMs do show much more widespread convection possible this afternoon and will insert a PROB30 into all of the sites to account for this possibility for now. Latest forecasts should be able to provide some more fine tuned timing later. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 89 64 80 68 / 30 70 50 20 San Angelo 94 67 90 70 / 20 40 40 20 Junction 95 70 92 72 / 20 40 30 20 Brownwood 88 65 81 69 / 30 70 60 30 Sweetwater 91 65 81 68 / 30 70 50 20 Ozona 91 70 90 70 / 20 30 20 10 Brady 89 67 83 69 / 20 50 50 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07