Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
671 FXUS65 KSLC 300858 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 258 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A cooler day is expected across the region in the wake of a weak cold front. A gradual warming trend will continue into Saturday. Another weak, mainly dry cold front will cross the area Sunday. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday)...A cooler day is on tap across the CWA in the wake of a weak cold front. Temperatures will average around 3 to 6 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicate the shortwave trough associated with the previously mentioned front continues to pull away from the region. A generally zonal flow has developed in its wake across the CWA. Across southern Utah, sufficient mid-level moisture remains in place for isolated, high-based convection, especially across southeastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Expect the main threat to continue to be gusty microburst winds given the dry subcloud environment. Several CAMS show this signature, with an area of strong, gusty winds resulting from isolated convection across the area. Quasi-zonal flow will continue into Friday, with isolated high- based convection expected across the higher terrain of Utah and adjacent valleys. The microburst threat will persist. .LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday)...Our weekend forecast is looking generally unremarkable weather wise but that stated there is the slightest of potentials for rain in our weekend forecast. Looking at the overall weather pattern, we note a broad upper trough to our west Saturday which is forecast to track eastward and bring a mostly dry cool front through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. This front is quite weak. But yet, it will bring some slightly cooler temperatures Sunday in its wake as well as a slight chance for precipitation. For the start of next week, high pressure is forecast to build back into the region and allow for temperatures to climb once more. Wouldn`t discount just how warm Monday could potentially get. While record breaking temperatures seem unlikely (about a 10% chance to reach the 97 degree record at the SLC airport), if some of the European ensemble members come true temperatures will be close! Monday will probably feel like a tease toward warmer temperatures because by the afternoon or evening, yet another trough and weak cool front is forecast to head toward the region. While expected to mostly impact areas to our north, portions of northern Utah just might just clipped by it. As a result, another chance for rain showers is forecast. And because this is another frontal passage, cooler temperatures will follow for Tuesday. This really will be a roller coaster of temperature swings until Wednesday across the north. The heat is on by Wednesday as a strong high pressure area settles over the Great Basin. And it doesn`t leave the region through the rest of the week. Wednesday is looking to be a triple digit day across much of Washington County in southwest Utah, where a 50 to 70% chance to exceed 100 degrees exists. These chances only increase headed into Thursday, so as the forecast stands now, look for Thursday to be the hottest day out of the week. Additionally, Glen Canyon/Lake Powell is looking to reach the 100 degree mark Thursday as well with around a 70% chance near Big Water and Bullfrog. As for the rest of Utah, forecast highs Thursday are looking to generally be into the 90s but remain below triple digits. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Northerly winds and VFR conditions are forecast this morning behind the passage of a cold front yesterday. Look for these conditions throughout the day before winds shift southeasterly this evening at light speeds. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are forecast across the region today with either clear skies or high based clouds forecast. This afternoon, gusty northwest to west winds around 20 kts are forecast to develop across BCE and EVW with otherwise light conditions prevailing. && .FIRE WEATHER...A cooler day is expected across the region today, with an uptick in humidities across most locations. Sufficient mid-level moisture remains in place for isolated high-based convection across portions of southern Utah this afternoon and evening. Isolated high-based convection will be more widespread area-wise Friday, including the higher terrain of Utah and adjacent valleys. By Saturday, the highest threat of high-based convection will be across the higher terrain of northern and central Utah. All three days, high-based convection will be capable of gusty and erratic microburst winds. Wetting rains are unlikely with this activity. Temperatures will be on the uptick through Saturday, with a relative decrease in minimum humidity each day in most locations. A mostly dry cold front will cross the region Sunday...though cooling with this front will be limited to 3 to 6 degrees or so across mainly northern and central Utah. Minimum humidities may briefly rise across northern Utah Sunday...but a quick return to very dry conditions is expected by Monday. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/NDeSmet For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity