476
FXUS65 KSLC 262108
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
308 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to work its way into the
area through the first half of the week. A substantial warming
and drying trend will accompany this high, pushing temperatures 5
to 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday. A mostly dry cold front
will push through the region late Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...High pressure continues to
build into Utah from the west this afternoon, with dry and stable
conditions today. Scattered shallow cumulus noted across the area
today should dissipate this evening. Otherwise, temperatures have
trended upward for today and will continue doing so tomorrow.
Afternoon max temperatures tomorrow will rise a further 5-10
degrees compared to today, resulting in slightly above-normal
values. The NBM has a 71% chance for SLC to reach 80F tomorrow.

Midlevel moisture will increase across the area tomorrow,
especially across central Utah, ahead of the next upstream
trough. This, combined with greater instability (HREF ensemble
mean SBCAPE up to 250 J/kg over the higher terrain), would bring
a potential for some high-based convection tomorrow afternoon.
This idea is supported by a consensus of a combination of model H5
RH blowups and simulated reflectivities greater than 20 dBZ.
While there is a low chance for measurable rain, some isolated
gusty microburst winds will be possible.


.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Tuesday), Issued 405 AM MDT...
On Tuesday, deterministic and ensemble model solutions are well-
clustered in their respective output, all showing the presence of
modest deep-layer southwest flow across the region in the wake of
a departing ridge, and downstream of an area of low pressure
approaching the British Colombian coastline. Such a configuration
is favorable for warm temperatures across the region, and that is
indeed expected to be the case, with the warmest day of the year
so far in store for Tuesday. Highs will surge into the upper 90s
across Lower Washington County, and into the mid to upper 80s
across the Wasatch Front. Modest moisture advection will combine
with the influence of the approaching low to promote an isolated
shower or thunderstorm or two, mainly across high terrain areas of
northern Utah and SW Wyoming during the afternoon and early
evening. Gusty microburst winds appear to be the main threat.

Over the past several days worth of forecasts, the greatest source
of uncertainty has been around the strength, track and timing
evolution of the British Colombian low. While there still remain
some lingering differences, model solution space appears to be
converging on a solution that drops this low across the Northern
Rockies in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe, with the most likely
solution suggesting the low and associated cold front will graze
northern Utah and SW Wyoming in the process. There is a seasonably
strong tight height and baroclinic zone associated with this low, so
main impacts with it appear to be gusty westerly winds, especially
on Wednesday and Thursday, when wind-prone locations such as SW
Wyoming are in line for gusts in the 30-40 mph range during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Additionally, a few showers and
thunderstorms will once again develop, namely over higher terrain
areas of northern Utah and SW Wyoming once again. After another warm
day on Wednesday, temperatures will cool a few degrees in the wake
of the front across northern areas Thursday and Friday. The above
represents the current most likely solution. It`s worth mentioning
that there remain some members that do not budge the ridge all all,
and such an outcome would imply a continuation of warm and dry
conditions through the week. Meanwhile, other members on the
opposite end of the distribution drop a stronger low across Utah,
suggesting greater coverage of cooler, unsettled conditions.
Nonetheless, there is quite good consensus in the idea of a ridge
building back across the area next weekend, with some modest
strength and positioning differences.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...No significant weather expected. Aside from a few
diurnal cumulus, skies remain clear to mostly clear. NW winds
through Sunday anticipated to shift SE between ~03-05Z Monday, with
subsequent diurnal shift back NW by ~15-17Z thereafter. Some brief
light and variable conditions possible near times of wind switches.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Generally benign conditions
with no significant weather expected through the TAF period. VFR
conditions persist with skies largely clear to mostly clear. Some
modest wind gusts possible during the day at more exposed and
typically gusty terminals, but otherwise anticipate fairly light
winds with diurnally normal direction changes.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will continue building into the area
into Tuesday, maintaining a warming trend across the area. A
slight increase in midlevel moisture tomorrow along with some
instability may bring some weak high-based convection especially
across central Utah tomorrow. Main threat would be some gusty
outflow winds with little or no measurable rain. As the next
trough slowly approaches the area, midlevel moisture continues to
increase into northern Utah on Tuesday. Then, the cold front
associated with the trough will push into northern and central
Utah on Wednesday. This will bring an increasing threat of showers
to northern Utah Tuesday through Wednesday. Behind the cold
front, cooler temperatures will spread into the area through late
week, but significant moisture is not expected.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/ADeSmet/Warthen

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