119
FXUS65 KSLC 022121
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
321 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...With an active northern stream remaining in control,
expect active weather to persist through late Monday. By
Wednesday, strong high pressure will bring the hottest airmass of
the summer to much of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The upper-level pattern will remain active through
Monday ahead of high pressure building into the region starting
Tuesday. For today, a shortwave trough passing over northern areas
has produced isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern
and eastern UT and southwestern WY. These showers have only
produced wind gusts up to 40 mph, despite the dry low levels and
steep low-level lapse rates. With limited leftover instability,
gusts aren`t expected to exceed that for the rest of the
afternoon/evening. As the shortwave trough continues eastward and
solar heating shuts off this evening, showers will come to an end
by late evening.

Another shortwave trough will graze across northern areas once
again, producing a cold front pushing through much of the area
Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated showers could reach well
into central Utah, with a band of more widespread precipitation
expected mainly north of I-80. The Bear River Range in particular
could see around 0.3-0.5" of QPF, with most other areas across
northern Utah seeing around 0.1". In contrast, far southern Utah
will likely stay hot and dry, with highs in St. George pushing
into the upper-90s...though increasing afternoon cloud cover could
limit these highs by a few degrees.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday), Issued 426 AM MDT...
A drier post-frontal northwest flow will be in place through
Tuesday. It will be the coolest day of the week throughout
southwest Wyoming and most of Utah, with valley high temperatures
mainly upper 70s or low 80s. The exception will be far southern
Utah, where less cold air advection is forecast from the Monday
into Tuesday storm system. Lower Washington County and Lake Powell
highs will range from the upper 90s to low 100s.

Confidence is high on a powerful ridge building in from the west
Wednesday. The ridge will be in place at least into the weekend,
bringing unseasonably warm conditions. Highs Wednesday will get
into the upper 80s for most northern valleys, roughly 5-10F warmer
than normal, and into the 90s and 100s for southern valleys,
10-15F warmer than normal. With strong subsidence and minimal
moisture, clear skies are likely throughout southwest Wyoming and
Utah.

Conditions will be similar Thursday, with the main difference
being temperatures around 5F warmer. That will put some locations
in record high territory, but in general, forecast highs and lows
are slightly cooler than records. By later Thursday, models bring
some mid and upper level moisture, especially into southern Utah.
While conditions will be dry, clouds could have some impact on
warming in that portion of Utah.

Moisture will build northward Friday. Although forcing will be
limited, enhanced moisture and daytime warming will likely bring
at least scattered clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the mountains. Although temperatures aloft will be
similar to Thursday, maximum warming could be limited with more
clouds and definitely with showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period, although there is about a 40% chance of CIGs around or below
6000 feet with vicinity showers Monday afternoon. Otherwise, north
winds this afternoon will give way to typical southerly winds
overnight. Northwest winds will resume on by late morning Monday and
be reinforced by the cold front and outflow from showers by midday
into the afternoon.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Widespread VFR conditions
prevail under scattered mid/high level cloud cover and isolated
showers across northeastern UT and southwestern WY. Showers decay
this evening with lighter diurnal winds overnight. A cold front will
cross the area on Monday brining rain showers across northern UT
/ SW WY and breezy westerly to northwesterly winds. Brief MVFR
restrictions are possible but not likely across far northern UT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue
across northern and eastern Utah through roughly 2000-2200, with
any showers capable of producing gusty outflow winds. Southern and
western Utah will remain warm, dry, and breezy today. Tomorrow
(Monday), min RH will trend higher over the entire area with the
passage of a cold front, which will also bring a chance for
wetting rain mainly north of I-80. The cold front will reach I-80
around early afternoon and I-70 by early evening. Building high
pressure beginning Tuesday will bring the return of hot and dry
conditions across the area through at least Thursday. Friday or
Saturday could bring a dry lightning threat due to increasing mid-
level moisture, but uncertainties still exist.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
     evening for UTZ123-131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cunningham
LONG TERM...Wilson
AVIATION...Church
FIRE WEATHER...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity