Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
012 FXUS66 KSTO 292148 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA Issued by National Weather Service Hanford CA 248 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... There is an elevated fire risk today due to breezy winds and high temperatures. Friday will be the hottest day of the current warmup before the weekend experiences a slight cooldown. Beginning on Monday, chances increase steadily through the week of temperatures hitting triple digits. .DISCUSSION... The axis of the trough will continue to move east throughout today and into tomorrow morning, which will continue to cause northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph, with possible gusts up to 30 mph. There will be mostly clear skies with the occasional wisps of high, cirrus clouds through the rest of today. High temperatures today are expected to be in the mid to high 80s in the Delta and peaking into the 90s in the Valley. Daytime humidity in the northern and central Sacramento Valley is expected to be in the mid to low teens, so there is an elevated fire risk today when combined with the breezy winds. As the trough axis moves east, ridging will begin to develop, which will lead to an increase in high temperatures from today through Friday. This ridge will be centered over California by then, where highs across the Valley are expected to be in the mid to high 90s and the Delta hovering around 90. The ridge will also lead to lowered winds so the fire risk will be lower than today. Another small trough is expected to pass over California on Saturday, leading to a decrease in high temperatures back into the low 90s in the Valley and into the mid 80s in the Delta by Sunday. Daytime humidities are expected to rise into the mid 20s on Monday as well. .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)... Monday will see temperatures similar to Sunday, which will both be slightly cooler than the warm up through the weekend. Highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s in the Delta and Valley, while the mountains and foothills will see temperatures in the 60s to 70s. Zonal flow, which is responsible for this slight cooldown, will prevail through Monday before a ridge slowly begins building on Tuesday. This building ridge will increase temperatures once again. As it strengthens, Tuesday and Wednesday again have decent probabilities of reaching 100 degrees. On Tuesday, there is a 40-55% chance that areas near and north of Sacramento will reach 100 degrees. Those probabilities increase considerably for Wednesday, with a 75-85% chance that the same areas will see 100 degree temperatures. In terms of HeatRisk, on Monday there is Moderate HeatRisk with the slightly cooled down temperatures. On Tuesday, the moderate HeatRisk is much more widespread with some localized areas of Major HeatRisk in and around the Chico area, due to those probabilities for hitting triple digits rising. For Major HeatRisk, anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration could be vulnerable to heat-related illnesses. Dry and mostly clear weather is anticipated through this extended period. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions next 24 hours. Areas of northerly surface wind gusts 20-25 kts in the Central Valley, strongest 15Z until about 00Z Thursday. Lighter winds throughout the rest of the area. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$