Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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775 FXUS62 KTAE 280830 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 430 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A "cold" front is forecast to work its way southeastward across the area today with drier and slightly cooler air filtering overhead in its wake. Some fog will be possible across the region this morning, particularly in areas that received recent rainfall, but should lift shortly after sunrise. Once the remaining showers and storms exit the southeast Big Bend this morning, dry conditions are expected through the rest of the near term. The front will knock down temperatures a few degrees, with lows overnight tonight dropping into the low to mid 60s inland to the upper 60s to near 70 near the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Generally post-frontal and dry conditions are expected through the short term period with northerly to northeasterly winds across most of the area. Expect a daily afternoon seabreeze to move onshore, with onshore winds in its wake. Highs are generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s each afternoon with lows in the mid 60s to near 70 overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 As surface high pressure slides further off to the east, winds are expected to become more easterly and eventually southeasterly over the weekend. Several shortwaves are forecast to rotate across the Southeast CONUS throughout the long term period, helping to increase the daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region. A few storms could become strong to severe, with gusty winds and hail the primary threats. Thanks to the increase in cloud cover and rain chances, highs are actually forecast to cool off a bit and range from the mid 80s to near 90 over the weekend. Lows are forecast to remain fairly steady in the mid 60s to near 70 each night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Showers and storms will continue to push ESE over the FL Big Bend and far south central GA over the next couple of hours before finally diminishing. Patchy fog will be possible this morning across the area, particularly in areas that received rainfall recently. Once the fog lifts after sunrise, VFR conditions are expected thereafter. && .MARINE... Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Winds will mostly be light and variable through the period with the exception of the seabreeze each afternoon in our nearshore waters. High pressure will build in this weekend which will clock winds to east-southeasterly. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 High dispersions are expected today and Wednesday with high mixing heights and breezy transport winds in the wake of a weak cold front. Northwest winds today will gradually become northeasterly by Thursday, with onshore flow expected along the seabreeze each afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Recent rainfall across the region will cause some additional rises on area rivers over the next couple of days. At this time, the only river forecast to potentially reach flood stage over the next several days is the lower Suwannee River. No additional meaningful rainfall totals are expected for at least the next few days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 92 71 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 91 67 90 68 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 91 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 68 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 92 68 94 67 / 40 0 0 0 Apalachicola 90 72 89 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Merrifield