Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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721 FXUS62 KTAE 270014 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 814 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 A quiet day continues across the forecast area this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 90s. Thanks to ridging, we`re seeing subsidence across the area, suppressing any shower or storm development this afternoon. However, the abundantly moist environment will contribute to some fog formation over the eastern Big Bend and I-75 corridor of Georgia late tonight into Monday morning where winds become light to calm. Farther to the west, fog formation appears less likely as winds will be a bit elevated ahead of our approaching system. Lows tonight will be very warm in the lower to middle 70s. Memorial Day looks to be a potentially active day, but the caveat is the coverage of storms may not be great. A shortwave passes through the area during the day Monday, though ridging tries to hold on in the eastern parts of our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in an environment that is support for strong to severe storms. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt, SBCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, and DCAPE of 800-1100 J/kg thanks to the presence of mid-level dry air will result in a potential for damaging wind gusts, either in the form of individual downbursts or a cold-pool driven multicell cluster(s). In addition to the damaging wind potential, there`s also the potential for large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km and cooling mid-level temperatures as the shortwave approaches. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas from Dothan to Albany northwestward in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) to a line from DeFuniak Springs to Moultrie. South of I-10, it may be more difficult for storms to develop given that these areas will be under a bit more influence from the ridge and dry air and are a bit further from the greatest lift. Not everyone will see storms tomorrow, but storms that develop could bring strong winds, frequent lightning, and hail. Given the holiday, many people may be trying to hold outdoor events. Make sure you have ways to receive weather updates, keep an eye to the sky, and remember: "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!" High temperatures tomorrow will be in the lower to middle 90s. Heat index values of 100-105 are possible south of I-10. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Behind the front on Tuesday, a drier airmass will move into the area with northwest flow. There could still be an isolated seabreeze storm across the southeast big bend, but that would be about it. Of course, late season cold fronts do not really bring much cooler air. High temperatures are still expected to reach the 90s for most areas on Tuesday. The humidity will just be a bit lower. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 There are some differences in the guidance on Wednesday with the 12z GFS bringing another upper level impulse into the area with scattered convection. Meanwhile, the ECMWF remains dry. The differences manifest from how convective clusters in the Plains develop and propagate. Thus, confidence is fairly low. However, the ensemble guidance favors only low PoPs on Wednesday, currently less than 20 percent. Beyond Wednesday, surface high pressure will move from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the coastal Carolinas. This will bring north and northeast breezes at the surface, which will gradually clock around to easterly and southeasterly. These factors favor a mainly dry forecast with PoPs around 20 percent or less. Highs will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected through a portion of the overnight period. Cigs will lower tonight at all sites to MVFR, possibly to IFR around TLH. Patchy fog will be possible near TLH and VLD late in the night. Cigs will rise to VFR around 13-14Z. SW winds around 6-12 kt are expected at most sites. TSRA will begin approaching ECP and DHN in the early afternoon before scattered thunderstorms begin to move across the region. Best confidence for VCTS would be at DHN/ABY/VLD tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 A late season cold front will move towards the waters Monday into Monday night. Gentle to moderate westerly breezes will follow the front on Tuesday, followed by a northwest turn on Tuesday night. High pressure will pass by well north of the waters from Wednesday through Friday, causing winds to gradually clock around from northerly to easterly by the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 High mixing heights and increasing southwesterly transport winds will result in high dispersions across southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon, mainly north of I-10. These storms will be capable of producing strong, erratic wind gusts and frequent lightning. Drier air filters in Tuesday and Wednesday behind a cold front. Winds will become more northwesterly and RH will drop into the 30s. Dispersions will still be high across southwest Georgia and the Big Bend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Flood waters from heavy rainfall back on May 17 and 18 are now routing into the slow-responding Suwannee River, which will see rises in the days ahead. All other rivers continue to fall. Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday afternoon, mainly over our Alabama and Georgia basins. Most places will not experience hydrologically significant rainfall, but isolated rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible. This could bring localized short- duration runoff issues. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 93 72 93 / 0 20 30 10 Panama City 76 87 74 91 / 10 20 20 10 Dothan 73 90 71 91 / 0 50 20 0 Albany 71 91 70 91 / 0 50 30 0 Valdosta 70 93 72 92 / 0 20 40 10 Cross City 71 90 72 92 / 0 0 20 40 Apalachicola 77 86 76 89 / 0 10 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Monday for FLZ112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...DVD