598
FXUS62 KTAE 300658
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
258 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Generally dry and pleasant conditions are expected across the area
today with northerly to northeasterly winds in place. A weak cold
front is forecast to stall near the northern portions of the area
today, which may keep temperatures in the area closer to the mid 80s
while the rest of the area rises into the upper 80s to low 90s.
Relatively drier air still in place will keep low temperatures
overnight in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Warm to hot weather continues as the calendar changes from May to
June with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 across Georgia and
Alabama and the lower to middle 90s in Florida. There is a chance
for a shower or storm along the seabreeze Friday afternoon with
slightly better chances for rain for southeastern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows will generally
be in the upper 60s to near 70 both nights.

Surface high pressure moving through the Mid-Atlantic coupled with a
shortwave H5 ridge over the southeast will combine to keep much of
the region dry Friday afternoon. That said, an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out along the seabreeze. As
both entities move into the western Atlantic, it will open the door
for slightly better shower and thunderstorm chances across
southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Rain and storm
chances dwindle the more east you go Saturday due to drier air in
place and the influence of the surface high.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast each
afternoon through the period with the best chances Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures will be on an upward trend from the upper 80s
to lower 90s Sunday and Monday to the lower to middle 90s for much
of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will experience
a similar trend from the upper 60s Sunday night to the lower to
middle 70s by the middle of next week.

A surface high anchored over Bermuda will provide an easterly to
southeasterly breeze much of the period and help to increase
moisture levels. Meanwhile, weak H5 troughiness and vorticity
perturbations should allow for slightly better shower and
thunderstorm cover Sunday afternoon. Precipitable water values
(PWATs) of 1.5" to 1.8" means locally heavy rain will be possible
within the stronger storms along with some gusty winds.

Guidance begins to diverge early next week. There will be ample
moisture in place to allow a couple of showers and storms to develop
along the seabreeze each afternoon. Just how many and how widespread
the coverage of those showers/storms are is in question. Therefore,
have elected to keep a 20% chance for showers and storms in the
forecast each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Tranquil marine conditions continue through Friday afternoon with
light and variable winds and seas generally less than 2 feet. High
pressure across the western Atlantic will bring easterly wind surges
a couple of nights starting Friday night and could linger into
Sunday night. Cautionary conditions are expected for most of the
waters with these wind surges, but brief spells of Advisory level
winds cannot be entirely ruled out. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Moisture will gradually return to the area over the next several
days as northerly winds gradually become easterly to southeasterly.
A combination of high mixing heights and breezy transport winds will
allow for high dispersions on Saturday afternoon. Rain chances will
also return Friday and increase over the weekend. There are no other
fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

The Withlacoochee River at Skipper Bridge Road is starting to crest
early this morning. It is currently forecast to crest just below
Minor Flood stage, or 135 feet, today. Will continue to monitor it
in case a Flood Warning is needed there today before it falls later
this evening. Flooding is not expected elsewhere, although
several points along the Suwannee will remain in Action Stage into
early next week.

The greatest chances for rain will be along and west of the
Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers this weekend into early next
week. Widespread rainfall totals of up to an inch or two may be
possible. Elsewhere, widespread rainfall totals are expected to be
minimal and confined mainly along the seabreeze.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  68  93  70 /  10   0  10  10
Panama City   91  71  92  74 /  10   0  10  10
Dothan        85  66  90  69 /  10   0  10  10
Albany        85  64  89  67 /  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      89  67  90  67 /  10  10  10   0
Cross City    94  67  94  67 /  10  10  20  10
Apalachicola  87  73  87  76 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese