969
FXUS62 KTAE 051728
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
128 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A shortwave over Alabama is helping produce some showers and
perhaps a few storms across southeast Alabama and into southwest
Georgia this morning. Additional showers and storms will be
possible this afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall possible. Otherwise, the previous forecast appears to be
on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon should focus
over the inland FL Big Bend and Southwest GA mainly east of the
Flint River. The main concerns are gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall, given decent DCAPE and high PWATs. Highs above
normal in the mid-90s. This evening into tonight, a cluster
or two of showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach
Southeast AL and Western FL Panhandle. While this activity
should weaken on approach, some strong storms cannot be ruled
out given decent instability and shear, with the main concern
being gusty winds. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A mid-level shortwave trough and cold front look to push through
the region on Thursday, which will provide sufficient forcing for
ascent for scattered to widespread thunderstorms across the
region. Convection looks to push through the region from the
northwest to southeast as the shortwave trough digs southeast off
the coast of Florida. Shear values look high enough to support
multicellular convective structures, which may lead to slightly
stronger thunderstorms on Thursday. Along with shear, the
environment ahead of the cold front will be sufficiently moist,
with PWATs ranging from 1.5-1.8 inches. DCAPE values similarly
will be high at around 700-900 J/Kg, which will help support
strong downbursts. The cold front should push through by late
Thursday night, which will generally lead to a dry Friday as
surface high pressure looks to settle into the southeast for the
weekend. Highs Thursday will generally be in the low 90s; however,
by Friday, highs will climb into the mid 90s as upper level
ridging builds over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

As mentioned above, in the wake of the cold front, upper level
ridging looks to nose into the region from the west. This will
actually lead to warmer temperatures through the weekend even with
the passage a cold front on Thursday. This front will primarily
advect drier air into the region lowering the dewpoints from the
low 70s into the upper 50s to low 60s areawide. So while it will
be hot in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend, the dewpoints
will be low enough through the afternoon hours that heat index
values will remain below any advisory criteria.

The upper level ridge looks to maintain control over the region
through the weekend as chances for showers and thunderstorms
remain low at around 10-20 percent. Appreciable rain chances don`t
look to return to the region until Monday as a trough looks to dig
equatorward across the eastern conus. Along with increasing rain
chances with a likely cold front dipping south, temperatures do
look to cool off into the low 90s by Tuesday as 500mb heights fall
slightly across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon at
most terminals. Patchy fog and low cigs will be possible
overnight, but confidence is too low to include at this point.
Another round of showers and storms will begin tomorrow morning
before spreading from west to east across the area through the day.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions with southerly to
southwesterly winds at around 5-10 knots are expected through the
end of the work week. Predominantly westerly winds look to take
over early Friday morning before becoming northerly Saturday as
surface high pressure is forecast to settle into central
Tennessee. While winds and seas will generally be favorable for
boating, there will be the chance for daily showers and
thunderstorms, particularly during the overnight hours and on
Thursday as a mid-level shortwave trough pushes through the
region. Thunderstorms can produce brief periods of increased winds
and surf, and should be avoided by small craft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms today
in the FL Big Bend and Southwest GA will lead to brief bursts of
erratic and gusty winds in their vicinity. Southwest transport
winds and seasonably high mixing heights will lead to pockets of
high dispersion this afternoon over portions of Southeast AL and
Southwest GA. The approach of a front on Thursday will lead to
widespread precipitation, with the potential for high dispersion
near the I-75 corridor of GA and the Eastern FL Big Bend. A much
drier air mass for early June filters in on Friday with afternoon
RH down into the 30s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

There are no significant hydrological concerns over the next week.
Widespread forecast rainfall totals are expected to be around
1-1.5 inches. The only concern is the chance for localized heavy
rainfall and flash flooding due to thunderstorms that may become
quasi-stationary or train over the same locations. The most vulnerable
locations would be urban, low-lying, and slow-drainage areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  91  73  95 /  10  60  10  20
Panama City   76  86  75  90 /  20  40  20  10
Dothan        72  87  71  92 /  30  60  20  10
Albany        72  88  71  92 /  20  60  20  10
Valdosta      71  92  72  93 /  20  60  20  10
Cross City    71  92  73  93 /  10  20  20  20
Apalachicola  76  86  76  89 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Bunker