Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
449 FXUS62 KTAE 170556 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 156 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 This evening update features a significant uptick in rain chances per radar trends and CAM guidance. An ongoing MCS over southwestern Louisiana is poised to continue moving eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the overnight hours. Ahead of this complex of storms, isolated showers and a rumble of thunder are possible, mostly near and offshore of the Emerald Coast through about 3 AM CT. Afterward, we`ll be watching the MCS approach our forecast area. The storms will likely be elevated given that we`ll likely still be north of the warm front. Thus, severe storms are currently not anticipated, but wouldn`t be surprised if storms contain frequent lightning and some small hail. The strongest storms look to be near and offshore of the Emerald Coast, but we`ll continue to monitor through the night. The MCS will likely make it into our Panhandle counties close to sunrise Friday morning, then traverse across the rest of the area Friday morning. While not explicitly forecast, the last several runs of the HRRR have indicated wake low development on the backside of this complex. If this were to materialize, then gusty winds will be possible Friday morning, especially near the coast. However, confidence in convective evolution is too low for inclusion in this forecast update. Will let the next shift evaluate trends. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Friday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Surface high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf this afternoon. High pressure will move east across the Florida Peninsula tonight, then continue on to northeast of the Bahamas on Friday. In response, low-level southerly flow will get underway and gradually increase, bringing a return of deeper and richer surface- based moisture by Friday morning. A warm front will then continue northward on Friday afternoon through our Alabama and Georgia counties, bringing a warmer and moister air mass northward. Meanwhile, 700-500 mb flow will back around south of due west and increase in strength, in response to an eastward-propagating and positively tilted upper trough traversing the Southern Plains. The first of multiple shortwaves will eject through the strengthening mid-level flow, zipping across our region early Friday morning. This will drive the cluster of storms currently over eastern Texas eastward overnight. By the time they get this far east, the storms will have weakened some and could very well be elevated on the cool side of the northward-advancing warm front. Later on Friday, there could be a temporary lull over our Florida counties, but convection could continue to occasionally fire off over our Alabama and Georgia counties thanks to lift provided by the northward-advancing warm front. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 The potential for severe weather is increasing and SPC has upgraded western portions of the area from a Marginal to Slight Risk on the latest Day 2, valid Friday night into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the remainder of the region is now in an SPC Marginal Risk. One or more rounds of thunderstorms is expected. The first round could occur or be ongoing as early as Friday night, although the more significant round is expected on Saturday into Saturday night. The high shear values are more reminiscent of the cool season while decent instability is expected. Damaging winds and possibly a tornado appear to be the main threats. Those with outdoor/travel plans should remain weather aware and adjust plans in advance accordingly. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Depending on the timing, a chance of showers and thunderstorms could linger across the eastern half of the area for Sunday. Cannot rule out a slight chance of showers across far eastern areas on Monday as another shortwave swings through. Otherwise, dry conditions look to dominate heading into the middle of next week with temperatures slightly above average. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 A squall line of thunderstorms approaching from the west could impact ECP early this morning. Otherwise, showers and gusty winds with ceilings fluctuating between VFR and MVFR are expected around TLH and DHN later this morning. For this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected near DHN and ABY. && .MARINE... Issued at 931 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Main changes to tonight`s forecast is to increase the rain chances, especially over the western waters. A complex of storms will move over the northern Gulf waters late tonight into Friday morning, perhaps remaining strong. Additionally, several runs of CAM guidance indicates a wake low could develop on the backside of these storms. If this materializes, then gale force gusts could be possible as storms depart. Confidence in this scenario is too low for explicit inclusion at this time. From CWF Synopsis...Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday as high pressure moves east of the waters. A cluster of strong thunderstorms is possible late tonight into Friday morning, possibly containing strong winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms could linger into Sunday with the front nearby. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 A weak front will approach the area on Friday and Saturday, passing the districts on Sunday. In advance of the front on Friday and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Both the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta and Ochlockonee River at Concord continue in minor flood stage. More rain is headed into the area for the end of this week into the weekend. The current expected rainfall amounts are in the 1-3 inch range over most of the area, but locally heavier amounts cannot be ruled out, particularly if thunderstorms moved repeatedly over the same areas. Thus, there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area from the WPC excessive rainfall outlook, mainly on Saturday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 74 86 70 / 50 20 80 50 Panama City 83 73 82 70 / 80 30 80 40 Dothan 84 71 78 67 / 60 50 90 30 Albany 85 71 82 67 / 60 50 90 40 Valdosta 88 74 87 69 / 30 30 80 60 Cross City 87 73 87 70 / 40 0 60 70 Apalachicola 82 75 82 72 / 80 10 70 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ this morning to 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ750-752-755-770-772- 775. && $$ NEAR TERM...Haner SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...DVD MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...DVD